690 FXUS64 KLZK 130450 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1150 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2019 .DISCUSSION... Updated to include the 06Z aviation discussion below... && .AVIATION... Expect VFR conditions to remain dominant for most sites. However...some patchy fog could be seen at ADF. Also...some increased rain chances will be seen for far SRN sections of the area during the daytime hrs Sun. The other terminals should remain dry. && PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 242 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2019) SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday After cold frontal passage Friday and near record lows with frost Saturday morning, the pattern becomes zonal through the southern CONUS through Sunday. Surface high pressure over the SE CONUS bringing SW flow through the state, warming temperatures and increasing moisture. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s Sunday and in the lower to mid 70s Monday. Low temperatures will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s across the northern half of the state and in the mid 40s across southern Arkansas. Disturbances in the flow and increasing moisture will bring rain chances to the southern part of the state Sunday afternoon and Monday evening. LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday From Monday night through Tuesday a large upper level trough will move southeast from the Dakotas towards the Great Lakes region. A shortwave trough embedded in the northwest flow south of this upper trough is expected to move over Arkansas on Tuesday spreading some weak large scale forcing for ascent over the state throughout the day. This weak ascent will meet up with a warm front lifting from Louisiana on southerly winds Tuesday, bringing Gulf moisture back across the southern and central parts of the state. The deep layer warm air advection and weak frontogenetic forcing associated with the warm front should allow for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop across southern Arkansas and spread north throughout the afternoon hours of the day. As the shortwave trough moves over the state, low level flow will tend to veer reducing the deep layer warm air advection scheme over much of Arkansas. Expect that showers and thunderstorms will start to diminish for these locations Tuesday evening as a result. However, behind the shortwave trough, another strong cold front is expected to move southeast across the state, bringing with it another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms along and just behind the frontal boundary as it moves across the state Tuesday night. With the loss of large scale forcing for ascent associated with the DPVA associated with the upper trough, and the veering flow replacing warm air advection with cold air advection, expect that showers and thunderstorms will remain closely tied to the front, dissipating quickly as the front moves across the state. All precipitation is expected to dissipate by Wednesday morning as the front moves into Louisiana and Mississippi. Behind the front upper level ridging and surface high pressure will result in sunny skies and dry weather across Arkansas for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will top out in the 60s on Wednesday, slowly warming into the lower to mid 70s by Friday. Another strong upper level trough is expected to approach the central and southern plains next weekend, and the resulting return of Gulf moisture and deep warm air advection regime will likely result in at least scattered showers and thunderstorms across the state next Saturday and Sunday. Despite the increase in rain chances, temperatures are expected to continue to warm a bit into the mid to upper 70s as warm air advection continues throughout the weekend. && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ Aviation...62