256 
FXUS63 KDMX 122048
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
348 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2019

.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Saturday/
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2019

Tonight...the strong winds look to subside by around 00z but 
still have some breezy sustained winds for much of the night as
the potent low pressure system continues to churn over the 
northern Great Lakes. Soundings remain saturated within the snow 
growth region until around 02-03z Sunday across northern Iowa. 
With the reports coming in today with mostly snow across the far 
north, kept the snow shower mention in this location. Further 
south along the Highway 20 should remain all rain with the surface 
temps near 40 or warmer. Not expecting any accumulation other than
maybe some grassy areas but judging by the latest IDOT traffic 
cams in northern Iowa, nothing is sticking. 

Sunday into Monday...surface high pressure begins to nudge itself  
into the region as the large upper low pressure continues to push 
eastward. Westerly winds increase through the afternoon hours due 
to mixing developing, but not expecting wind to reach criteria as 
highest gusts only from 20-25 mph. Another cool night with the 
center of the surface high across Iowa Sunday night should make 
nice radiational cooling. 

Tuesday...A clipper system quickly pushes southeast through 
ND/MN Monday night into Tuesday providing enough moisture and 
lift for a few showers across the eastern CWA by early Tuesday 
morning.  Otherwise, once that system pushes east later in the 
morning Tuesday, good mixing develops during the afternoon hours. 
Winds atop the mixed layer range from 30-35 knots past 18z. 

Wedensday to Friday...mostly dry during this period with only low 
rain chances by Friday across eastern Iowa from another upper 
level shortwave and associated cold front to sweep across the 
region. 

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon/
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2019

Intermittent MVFR ceilings to possibly impact MCW and even ALO and
FOD this afternoon into the evening. Lower confidence to mention
at ALO and FOD attm, but should see MVFR ceilings at MCW through 
the afternoon hours. Certainly the main concern was the strong 
wind with gusts as high as 40 knots this afternoon. Expecting 
winds to decouple by 23z or 00z tonight but will still have some 
sustained winds AOA 12 knots for much of the night. 


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ004>007-015>017-
023>028-033>039-044>050-059>062-073>075-085-086.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Podrazik
AVIATION...Podrazik