093 FXUS62 KMHX 121935 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 335 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will remain offshore through tomorrow, as a cold front approaches from the west late tomorrow night and into Monday. High pressure will quickly pass through the area on Tuesday, and then a stronger low pressure system will move up the east coast, and push a cold front through the region on Wednesday. Cooler high pressure will build in late week and into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 240 PM...Weak high pressure will continue over the area tonight, and will lead to calm and clear conditions tonight. However, with low level heights a bit higher than last night, expect temps to be a bit warmer, reaching the upper 50s to low 60s inland, and the low to mid 60s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... As of 245 PM Sat...A cold front will approach the region tomorrow, with increasing clouds expected along the coastal plain by morning. Showers should hold off now until late morning to early afternoon on the coastal plain, with conditions remaining dry farther east through most of the afternoon. It will be very warm again east of the clouds with temps expected to climb into the low 80s, while over the coastal plain temps will remain in the 70s under mostly cloudy skies. Rain chances spread to the coast by early evening, and couldn't rule out a thunderstorm developing depending on the amount of daytime heating observed. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Sat...Two rounds of precipitation are likely across eastern NC over the next few days. The first with a slow- moving front Sunday night into Monday morning, then another with low pressure moving to our west dragging in a stronger cold front Tuesday night and Wednesday. Cooler drier air will follow the cold front for late next week. Sunday Night through Monday...A slow-moving front will approach the area Sunday night with increasing clouds from the west. The deepest moisture and best lift will occur later Sunday night into Monday morning and will continue with likely PoPs through this period. QPF amounts will generally be one-half inch or less with this system. With southwest flow, high temperatures both Sunday and Monday will reach the lower 80s inland with milder overnight lows in the 60s. Monday Night through Tuesday...We will be between weather systems with low PoPs, mainly confined to the coast, and winds becoming N/NE for a period before quickly veering to S/SW ahead of the next system by late Tuesday. Tuesday Night and Wednesday...Longer range models continue to show low pressure moving along the I-95 corridor Tuesday night with a couple of weaker waves of low pressure moving near the coast early Wednesday. Deep moisture and increased lift expected Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and will hang on to likely PoPs for this period, along with a slight chance of thunder given weak instability and decent mid-level dynamics. Milder temperatures expected during this period with lows in the mid 60s and highs upper 70s to lower 80s. Wednesday Night through Friday...As strong cold front moves offshore Wednesday night, expect cooler and drier air for the remainder of the week with highs mainly in the 60s, with Thursday being the coolest day. Overnight lows are likely to reach the upper 40s/lower 50s over much of the area by Friday morning. These cooler temperatures will be accompanied by gusty NW/N winds, signaling the deepest cool airmass so far in the fall season. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term /through Sunday Afternoon/... As of 300 PM Sat...VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Mostly clear skies for the rest of the day will give way overnight to some mid level clouds/ceilings, but heights will stay at VFR levels. Some showers are possible over the coastal plain tomorrow afternoon as a weak cold front approaches. Long Term /Sunday through Thursday/... As of 300 PM Sat...Periods of sub-VFR conditions likely Sunday night and Monday as widespread showers are expected to accompany a slow- moving front through the area. A strong system, with a surface low moving along the I-95 corridor, will lead to more widespread showers and possibly a few tstms Tuesday night and Wednesday with sub- VFR conditions likely. && .MARINE... Short Term /Through Tomorrow/... As of 305 PM Sat...Dangerous seas and waves continue, with the latest buoy observations showing seas of around 6-10 ft north of Cape Hatteras, while conditions to the south have improved to 3-5 ft. Winds have come around to the south in some spots and remain variable in others. Expect winds to become SW 10-15 kts overnight, and then turn to the S tomorrow afternoon ahead of a cold front. Seas will continue to be 6-10 ft through this evening, and then will subside to 5-8 ft by tomorrow morning north of Cape Hatteras. By the afternoon seas will be 4-6 ft north of Cape Hatteras, and 2-4 ft to the south. Long Term /Sunday through Thursday/... As of 300 PM Sat...After a couple of quieter marine days early next week, a strong area of low pressure will track inland near the I-95 corridor, with a couple of smaller lows possible near the coast. This will all be in advance of a strong cold front will approaches later Tuesday and moves offshore Wednesday. Gusty SW winds Tuesday night and early Wednesday become NW Wednesday afternoon with gusts likely to exceed 25 knots and seas building to 6 feet or greater, thus SCA will again be needed. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 305 PM Sat...Large swells and high water levels from Subtropical Storm Melissa will continue through most of the weekend, with areas of significant ocean overwash expected across the Outer Banks (mostly Hatteras Island). Ocean overwash will be likely through the high tide cycle on Sunday evening, so have extended the Coastal Flood Advisory through then. Given reported high water levels in Downeast Carteret County, including the Beaufort area, have added eastern Carteret County to the Coastal Flood Advisory until around noon on Sunday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196- 203>205. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ203-205. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ203-205. Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for NCZ196. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ156- 158. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SGK SHORT TERM...MS LONG TERM...DAG/CTC AVIATION...CTC/SGK MARINE...CTC/SGK TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX