010 FXUS64 KHUN 120822 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 322 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2019 .NEAR TERM...(Today) Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2019 Cold front has just about exited the cntrl TN Valley to the east as it moves across NE AL this early Sat morning. A few light returns on radar continue along/behind the exiting frontal boundary, and this trend should continue into the daytime hrs. The cooler air should already be spreading ewd into the region, as evidenced by temps in the upper 30s/mid 40s across west TN. The influx of cooler air should translate into lows this morning in the mid 40s west to the lower 50s east. Any lingering light rain should also taper off from the west heading into the afternoon hrs, as cooler/drier air continues to spread into the area in the wake of the frontal passage. Afternoon temps will certainly be more fall like, as highs trend predom in the mid 60s for most spots (normal high is around 76F). .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2019 Clearing skies and quiet conditions should be the overall trend this evening, as seasonably cool air settles over the mid TN Valley area. Early morning temps Sun look to fall mainly into the lower/mid 40s, before rebounding into the upper 60s later in the day. Iso/sct showers/tstms may also develop on Sun, as a weak upper disturbance embedded within a WSW flow regime traverses across the region. This rainfall should then taper off to the east Sun evening with the passing disturbance, as high pressure at the sfc builds ewd into the Midwest/OH Valley states. Early morning lows Mon look to trend in the mid/upper 40s range before rebounding into the mid 70s later in the day, as southerly flow develops over much of the region in response to the oncoming sfc high. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2019 A weak warm front will lift back to the north on Tuesday from the northern Gulf Coast. Accompanying this boundary will be some richer moisture and subsequently a broad area of showers and thunderstorms that will gradually overspread the region from the south throughout the day. The greatest coverage will likely be from the early afternoon through the evening, with the activity quickly shifting off to the east after midnight on Tuesday night. With plenty of cloud cover and convection, think instability will be limited, tabling any threat for robust convection or strong thunderstorms. This wave of deeper convection may bring around 1.0 inch of QPF to the region and thus another round of much needed rainfall in October, typically our driest month of the year. A surface high will settle into the region in the wake of this system, reestablishing a cool and dry air mass for Wednesday and Thursday. Despite plenty of sunshine, expect temperatures to run below seasonable norms, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s both days. With good radiational cooling Wednesday night, temperatures could fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s by early Thursday morning. Thus, it's possible we could see our first frost of the autumn season in some locations, especially across sheltered valleys in Southern Middle Tennessee and Northeast Alabama. With this area of high pressure sliding off to the east, southwest flow aloft will develop Friday into the weekend. This will allow Gulf moisture to creep back into the region, reintroducing some isolated, weak showers to the forecast. Most locations will remain dry, however, with a warming trend occurring as highs return to the mid to perhaps upper 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2019 Cold front is moving ewd thru NW AL this early Sat morning, with -ra occurring along/just ahead of the advancing front. Cigs are around 2-3K ft ahead of the front and 1-2K ft along/behind the boundary. Conds should gradually improve to VFR Sat morning, as drier air begins to spread into the area in the wake of the frontal passage. Sfc winds are xpcted to become north around 8-10kt. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...09 SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM...AMP.24 AVIATION...09 For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.