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FXUS64 KLUB 120807
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
307 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Surface winds have returned to the south across the forecast area
as the surface ridge has moved eastward to northwest Texas. As a
result most areas are at or just a touch warmer than 24 hours ago.
The four county Freeze Warning has some areas that are touching or
close to touching the freezing mark, but the south winds should
limit the downside. Although possibly not a widespread freeze
across these counties, there will be enough areas to get there to
keep the warning going to its 9 AM expiration time. Surface 
cyclogenesis near the Raton Mesa will result in increasing south
to southwest winds today, especially on the caprock, which will in
turn help warm temperatures about ten degrees over yesterday's
very cool day. A weaker surface pressure gradient Sunday will not
hinder further warming as heights and thicknesses make a notable
jump with temperatures warming into the 80s areawide. 

Looking to the upcoming work week, the flow aloft across the CONUS
is generally a zonal and progressive one with a series of short
wave troughs moving through the flow. This should lead to mild to
warm temperatures and little in the way of precipitation chances.
One possible window for showers comes Monday as an upper level
short wave trough moves across the desert Southwest to the
southern High Plains. It still appears the RRQ of the associated
upper jet will favor areas to the south of the forecast area for
best precip chances. However, there is still some signal that the
far southern part of the forecast area might see a few showers.
The current progs suggest the trough will be a bit slower than
previously thought, so will extend slight chance mention into
Monday night across the southern Rolling Plains.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for TXZ035-036-040-
041.

&&

$$

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