334 FXUS65 KABQ 120801 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 201 AM MDT Sat Oct 12 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Weather conditions will remain rather uneventful over the next several days. Temperatures will be warmer today, but still below normal across the area. Low temperatures tonight will also be warmer and above freezing for most, but portions of northern New Mexico and the upper Rio Grande Valley will still see temperatures fall below freezing. Temperatures continue to warm on Sunday to near normal values and even above normal in the east. Winds become breezy across the state Monday and Tuesday as a weak disturbance tracks over the state, but no precipitation is expected. Temperatures gradually warm up to above normal values for most this week, but a couple of backdoor cold fronts that will move into northeast New Mexico this week will cause temperatures to yo-yo in this area. && .DISCUSSION... Weather conditions still look rather uneventful over the next several days, and warming temperatures will be the main story over the area. Westerly flow will dominate today across the state as a weak trough passes over the area. Forecast models indicate weak moisture advection across west central NM this afternoon ahead of the trough. However, believe that any resulting precipitation from this is highly unlikely with surface dewpoints in the 20's and an atmosphere that is just too dry. A few clouds will be more likely from any moisture that manages to advect into the area. Low temperatures Sunday morning will be warmer and above freezing for most, but northern NM and the upper RGV will still dip below freezing. Temperatures rebound to near to above normals readings during the day Sunday as a weak ridge builds over the western US. By Monday, an upper-level trough will move inland into central CA and move west to east over the southern Rockies. As flow turns southwesterly ahead of this feature, tropical moisture over the eastern Pacific will be transported northward into northern Mexico and southern TX. Earlier runs of the GFS and ECMWF indicated some of this moisture could reach into southern NM, but the models have since backed off considerably and now keep the moisture out of New Mexico. As the trough tracks across the state from the west late Monday and into early Tuesday, winds will likely become breezy across the area, but no precipitation is expected from the system. As it ejects across the Great Plains on Tuesday, it will send a backdoor cold front across the northeast plains, cooling temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees through Wednesday. Another weak, dry disturbance crosses the state late in the week and sends another backdoor cold across the eastern plains on Friday, cooling temperatures again. Things could get interesting next weekend as models show a strong low pressure system that moves into the Intermountain West. Both the GFS and the ECMWF currently show this low deepening and moving its center over northern NM on Sunday. There are significant differences between the two though in how fast it ejects. The ECMWF ejects the low into the Great Plains quickly late Sunday, but the GFS stalls the system over the state. Details this far out remain fuzzy, but for now, it looks like chances for precipitation will return to the forecast for at least northern NM late next weekend. Stay tuned. 15 && .FIRE WEATHER... Westerly flow aloft for the next few days with a couple of disturbances embedded in the flow. These will serve to enhance winds at times especially from the Central Highlands across the Northeast and East Central Plains, as well as temporarily increase mid to high level cloud cover. One disturbance is expected to cross northern and central New Mexico later this afternoon and this evening, and combined with humidities below 15 percent, spotty critical conditions could develop over San Miguel county for a few hours this afternoon. A second disturbance Monday could also produce localized critical conditions in the afternoon over San Miguel county. Temperatures will remain below normal today but will climb to near to above average Sunday and remain there through most of next week. A dry cold front will impact the eastern plains Tuesday, cooling high temperatures about 5 to 15 degrees but not enough to vary much from climatology. The westerly flow aloft will tend to keep the deep subtropical moisture lingering south of New Mexico, away from the state, at least in the short term. However, models start to diverge in the strength and track of upper disturbances by late next week and into next weekend. While the forecast for the next seven days appears dry, next weekend could see a substantial storm system, with windy and colder conditions, combined with scattered showers over northern New Mexico. Areas of fair to poor ventilation are forecast today for much of the lower terrain of the region, including the Middle Rio Grande Valley. Poor rates will continue to plague the Northeast Plains Sunday, with the best rates overall on Monday. Fair to poor rates will be widespread Tuesday and Wednesday. $$ && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE Westerly flow aloft with a weak trough passing from west to east over NM next 18-24 hrs. Models indicate sct-bkn mid clouds associated with the trough could develop over central NM aft 21Z. Otherwise, surface lee trough developing by 18Z. VFR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 65 29 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 63 23 67 28 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 63 34 66 37 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 68 30 70 33 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 65 32 67 34 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 68 31 70 34 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 67 37 70 38 / 5 5 0 0 Datil........................... 66 36 68 37 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 73 47 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 58 23 61 28 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 61 40 66 43 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 62 38 66 40 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 60 28 64 33 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 54 19 59 26 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 56 15 61 23 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 63 24 66 30 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 63 33 67 35 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 66 35 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 61 38 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 64 36 70 40 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 66 44 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 68 46 73 47 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 69 43 75 44 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 66 43 73 46 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 68 40 75 43 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 67 43 73 47 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 71 45 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 61 41 65 43 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 64 41 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 68 35 71 38 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 64 39 68 42 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 64 41 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 65 47 72 50 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 63 43 66 46 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 64 30 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 68 27 71 34 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 68 28 73 34 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 68 36 72 39 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 69 39 73 43 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 68 37 73 40 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 73 41 81 45 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 73 46 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 71 45 81 47 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 62 45 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 64 45 79 49 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 65 45 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 67 45 82 51 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 67 49 77 51 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 69 46 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 15