867 
FXUS63 KEAX 112305
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
605 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 230 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2019

The main concern over the next 24 hours is with the likelihood 
for widespread freezing temperatures early Saturday morning. 
Surface temps look to fall below freezing beginning around 
midnight across northern Missouri and at or below freezing across 
central Missouri by 3 am. Temps will then remain at or below 
freezing until 7 or 8 am Saturday morning. It's worth protecting 
or bringing inside sensitive vegetation and disconnecting garden 
hoses from the water supply as overnight lows will be about 15 
degrees below normal for a multiple-hour period. A Freeze Warning
remains in effect from midnight tonight through 9 AM Saturday 
across the CWA.

Northwesterly surface winds will become more southwesterly with time 
as a west to east oriented surface ridge axis continues to expand 
downstream. Wind gusts will taper off near sunset tonight before 
increasing tomorrow morning as low level flow strengthens south of 
an intensifying Northern Plains surface low. With warm advection 
trends back in place tomorrow morning, afternoon highs will warm 
up into the low 60s across the area. Saturday afternoon conditions
will be ideal, but gusty, as dew points remain in the low 30s. 
Above-freezing temps are expected Saturday night, though areas of 
frost are possible across northern Missouri through early Sunday 
morning.

Dry conditions will continue through Monday, at which point a cold 
front will push through the area and present a chance for drizzle 
initially, followed by light rain and isolated thunderstorms 
beginning Monday evening into the overnight. At this time, moisture 
supply looks to be the limiting factor in appreciable 
rainfall totals. Additional precipitation chances will hold off 
until the late week through next weekend with rain showers and 
thunderstorms possible as a broad mid to upper-level trough 
deepens over the southwest CONUS.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 605 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2019

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF pd with mostly clr skies.
Gusty west winds will subside by the beginning of the TAF pd and
will back to the SW tonight around 5-10kts. Winds will pick up 
again late tomorrow morning to around 15kts with gusts around
25kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for 
     KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for 
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...73