473 FXUS63 KOAX 112041 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 341 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2019 The massive, slow-moving storm system over the northern Plains continues to dominate the weather locally with strong westerly flow and cold advection. This afternoon, the steep low level lapse rates and a shallow moist layer in the snow growth zone at 5000 feet have allowed for some flurry development, with many areas seeing a few flakes but nothing in the way of actual accumulation. Recent satellite patterns now clearly indicate an influx of drier air from the west and these low clouds are quickly dissipating in central Nebraska...with a high likelihood that they will dissipate in the next few hours over eastern NE and western IA as well. Overnight tonight the main story is freezing temperatures as the entire area is likely to fall into the 28-33 degree range. While skies will be clearing, the wind is likely to continue low level mixing through the night which will help keep air temperatures a bit warmer. In any valleys where the winds are lighter or even calm for an hour or two, can expect air temps to get quite a bit cooler, but believe this will be the exception and a vast majority of the area will maintain wind, boundary layer mixing, and thus have low temperatures hold above 28. Saturday will be windy from the west once again but warmer with southern parts of the area well into the 50s...and holding in the 40s in northern NE. Expect ample sunshine. Then tomorrow night, winds will relax and clear skies will allow temperatures to fall below freezing once again. Uncertain at this point if freeze/frost products will be needed as a killing frost tonight would preclude the need for additional watch/warning products through the rest of the fall season. Sunday into Monday will be pleasant with highs in the 50s on Sunday and the 60s on Monday while lows continue to range from the upper 20s to lower 30s (coldest north). A weak fast-moving storm system will bring a small chance for rain to the area late Monday, but most of the area is likely to be dry with most precip being east of the forecast area. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2019 The long term period is pretty benign, and generally pleasant and fall-like. A cold front comes through late Monday which will cool temperatures down a bit for Tuesday into Wednesday, but by the end of the week, a warming trend is expected with highs in the 60s or even lower 70s. Will be watching another fast-moving storm system by Friday which could eventually bring a chance for precip, but not a lot of confidence in the timing or track of this system at this time. Beyond day 7, there area hints in the ensembles at a more active weather pattern with mean southwesterly flow aloft. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2019 VFR conditions likely through the TAF period with scattered to broken ceilings in the 3500-5000 ft range through roughly 23Z at all sites today. Expect clearing skies after 23Z with less frequent gusts until around 15Z when winds increase again. OFK will be close to experiencing LLWS overnight with 2000 foot AGL winds from the west at 30-35 kts, but have not included it in the TAF at this time. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078- 088>093. IA...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch LONG TERM...Barjenbruch AVIATION...Barjenbruch