135 FXUS63 KIND 110816 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 416 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2019 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 310 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2019 A potent cold front will move through central Indiana today, bringing with it rain as well as a sharp drop in temperatures. Another front could bring more rain early next week. Temperatures will bounce around between above normal and below normal through next week. && .NEAR TERM...(Today) Issued at 310 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2019 Early this morning, a surface low was across Minnesota, with an upper low across South Dakota. A cold front extended south from the surface low down the Mississippi River and then back into Arkansas. As the surface and upper lows move northeast, the cold front will get dragged through the area today. A strong temperature gradient exists with the front. Ahead of the front, 40kt 850mb winds will continue bring in moisture and provide lift. Given the available moisture with the system and the decent dynamics with it, definite PoPs look good all areas today. Limited instability and the fact that the strongest dynamics will be north of the area should keep the threat of severe thunderstorms at bay. A thunderstorm could still produce gusty winds below severe limits though. Based on what's out there now and short term high res guidance, went a little above the blend for highs today. Temperatures will crash this afternoon from west to east as the cold front moves through. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 310 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2019 Models are close enough that the National Blend of Models initialization was accepted for most items. Rain will quickly diminish from west to east as drier air works in behind the system. Will have rain ending before 06Z. The drier air will also allow skies to clear. Winds will diminish, but not go calm. Some models try to bring temperatures down to freezing across parts of the area. Not quite sure that'll happen with the winds not going calm, but it will get close in some areas. Given this, feel that can't rule out some frost in sheltered areas. Thus, will mention patchy frost, but nowhere near enough for any advisory. The remainder of the short term will be dry with high pressure in control for much of it. A weak front will try to sneak into the northern forecast area on Sunday, but with limited forcing and moisture, there shouldn't be any rain with it. Could be some patchy frost again in the south Saturday night with lighter winds there and lows in the 30s. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday Night/... Issued at 329 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2019 Central Indiana will be under the influence of high pressure early in the extended period. So, dry conditions can be expected for Monday. However, the pattern will shift by Monday night as a surface frontal system traverses the Lower Midwest with an upper low quickly behind over the Upper Midwest. Rain will start overspreading the forecast area from the west overnight on Monday night continuing through Tuesday. A few isolated thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out across the far southwestern counties. Rain will end across most of the area by Wednesday morning with the entire forecast area dry by Wednesday afternoon. Dry conditions will then prevail through the remainder of the long term period. Meanwhile, temperatures will climb to normal ahead of the aforementioned frontal system for Monday and Tuesday, but they will take another dip on Wednesday and Thursday in the wake of the frontal system. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 11/09Z TAF Update/... Issued at 411 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2019 Update... No changes at this time. Rain continues to move closer from the west. Previous Discussion... Good confidence showers will be increasing in coverage and flying conditions will deteriorate to MVFR and possible worse after 11z from northwest to southeast. Thunderstorms will also be possible but chances too low to mention. Look for the showers to end and lying conditions to improve this evening sometime around 03z Saturday or later. Winds will be southeast and then south 6 to 10 knots overnight, south to gusting to 20 knots after 14z after southwest gusting to 20 knots after the front moves through after 17z. Finally, winds will switch to northwest and decrease to around 10 knots after 23z. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...50 NEAR TERM...50 SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....TDUD AVIATION...MK/TDUD