800 FXUS62 KTAE 102017 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL Issued by National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 417 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019 .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Though water vapor imagery reveals subtle troughing - or at least cyclonic curvature - over the eastern Gulf, it is too far south, and ridging continues to dominate the area and the nearshore Gulf waters. As a result, continue to expect fair weather and a generally persistent weather regime through tonight. There may be enough cooling overnight for some patchy fog to emerge for the northeasternmost portions of the area in Southwest Georgia, but confidence is not extremely high at this point. The best shot for fog - if any at all - is likely to be in the general vicinity of Valdosta and neighboring counties to the north. .SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]... Not much change in expectations for the first half of the weekend. A cold front will approach the area from the west, but is attached to a low in Ontario, and appears as if it will occlude, cutting off the tail end of the front in our region. Retained the slight chance of showers and perhaps an odd thunderstorm in the far west on Saturday afternoon, but temperatures continue to stay pretty stable - the potent Great Lakes upper trough may blunt the Gulf ridge dominating our region, dampening highs perhaps a degree or two. .LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]... Early next week we'll look for things to finally change. An upper trough looks to dig from the Northern Plains into the Ohio Valley. In the meantime, a weak surface low looks to form up over the Red River Valley on Monday night, and be drawn up into the influence of the upper trough Tuesday. This will bring in a front - or perhaps more accurately - reenergizing the old stalled front. More significant showers and storms are possible to our northwest Monday and Tuesday, but could advance far enough south to scrape along the northern edge of the area in Alabama and Georgia. Look for more meaningful rain chances to move into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Again, with the main forcing well to our north, any showers and storms will be fizzling out, but should bring at least a fair shot at somewhat widespread showers and a few embedded storms until offshore flow from a surface high settling into the Mid-south dries things out. && .AVIATION... [Through 18Z Friday] VFR conditions with winds to around 10 knots, generally out of the east into early evening. Winds will diminish overnight, and expectations for now are for the Alabama and Florida terminals to stay VFR through the night. ABY and VLD may be a different story. Have cautiously carved out a period of MVFR visibility without enough confidence to be any more pessimistic, but guidance suggests IFR visibility and/or ceilings are possible, particularly at VLD. Future forecast cycles will likely be better able to flesh out the precise evolution of flight conditions around dawn tomorrow. && .MARINE... Expect east to southeasterly winds to persist through tomorrow, with open waters reaching as high as 15 to 20 knots. By Friday night, look for winds to diminish and become more southeasterly. Correspondingly, expect 2 to 4 foot seas until the winds become weaker, when waves are forecast to subside. Though generally dry, a handful of showers and storms are possible farther offshore into the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dispersions tomorrow afternoon west of the Apalachicola and along the Florida/Alabama border may exceed 60 tomorrow afternoon, but excessive values above 75 are not anticipated at this time. Look for mixing heights to increase rapidly through the morning under mostly sunny skies each day into the weekend. Minimum RH should be mainly in the 40-50 percent range (or higher) for much of the Panhandle, and in the 35-45 percent range in Alabama and Georgia. Fog potential will be generally low, though some fog may be possible briefly towards dawn in Southern Georgia nearer the Okefenokee. && .HYDROLOGY... River and stream levels remain low and widespread precipitation is not expected during this forecast period. The next meaningful chance of any precipitation will be late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, potentially lingering into Thursday. There are no flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 63 89 64 91 65 / 0 0 0 10 10 Panama City 68 87 70 87 69 / 0 0 10 10 10 Dothan 61 89 63 88 63 / 0 0 10 20 0 Albany 60 87 63 89 65 / 0 0 0 20 0 Valdosta 61 87 61 88 65 / 0 0 0 10 0 Cross City 65 87 64 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 69 84 69 84 70 / 0 0 10 10 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT Friday for Coastal Franklin. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Luchs (WFO HGX) SHORT TERM...Luchs (WFO HGX) LONG TERM...Luchs (WFO HGX) AVIATION...Luchs (WFO HGX) MARINE...Luchs (WFO HGX) FIRE WEATHER...Luchs (WFO HGX) HYDROLOGY...Luchs (WFO HGX)