352 FXUS62 KFFC 101610 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1210 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019 .UPDATE... Forecast is mostly on track outside of some low-level cloud cover on the lee side of the Southern Blue Ridge Mnts from the weak wedge conditions. Low-level clouds should break up as the day passes but could lower the high temperatures in areas where the cloud cover remains thick into the early afternoon. Winds could be breezy at times in the early afternoon becoming lighter as the afternoon goes on. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 730 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019/ SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/... Warm dry weather will continue through Friday as the upper ridge persists over Georgia. At the surface...high pressure building down the Appalachians will keep a weak wedge across the area. The air mass will remain stable through the period with little CAPE and positive Lifted Index values. An approaching frontal boundary will stay just west of the state through late Friday afternoon...so no significant increase in moisture is expected. Afternoon temperatures will continue to be above normal. 41 LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/... A transition in the overall pattern will be underway as the long term period begins. By Friday night, the wedge along the eastern side of the Appalachians and extending into the forecast area will be in the process of breaking down. The upper level ridge will also be transitioning eastward away from Georgia and towards the Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, a deep low pressure system will continue to move northeastward from the northern Plains towards the Great Lakes region. A cold front will extend from this low into the southeastern states and push eastward towards the forecast area as the weekend begins. Model guidance is continuing to trend towards better agreement regarding the timing of the frontal passage. The latest ECMWF and GFS both indicate the front entering the far northwest corner of the Georgia on Saturday morning and pushing southeastward through the forecast area throughout the remainder of the day. Instability associated with this system is expected to be marginal -- sufficient to support isolated thunderstorms ahead of the front in north Georgia, but not enough to warrant concern for widespread severe weather. Moisture ahead of the front will be limited, with only low- end chance PoPs across north Georgia and slight chance PoPs across west and portions of central Georgia during the day Saturday. Rainfall totals from this system are furthermore not anticipated to make much of a dent in the increasingly significant drought. Because of the lingering influence of this ridge over eastern Georgia early in the period, temperatures ahead of the front will be as much as 6-12 degrees above average on Saturday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s in central and portions of east Georgia. Cooler temperatures will then build into the northern portion of the area as northwesterly flow sets up behind the front. While high temperatures will remain a several degrees above normal, low temperatures could approach or even drop below normal and into the 40s in north Georgia on Sunday morning. The front is expected to become stationary across south-central Georgia by Sunday amid a zonal flow pattern aloft. Several shortwaves embedded within this zonal flow are expected to traverse the area during the early parts of next week, which will lead to increasing rainfall chances on Monday through Wednesday. Have trended PoPs up once again on these days, as a result. King AVIATION... 12Z Update... Mainly VFR through the period. Will see some SCT-BKN clouds above 060 this morning...and some afternoon cumulus 040-050. The exception is SCT-BKN layer around 035 developing east of KATL. Not confident this layer will work its way into KATL...but will have to keep watch. Winds will continue out of the East with wind speeds 10kt or less through the period. No precip or restrictions to VSBYs expected. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... High confidence on all elements except low confidence on evolution of lower cloud layer east of KATL. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 82 55 83 59 / 0 0 0 5 Atlanta 82 59 83 63 / 0 0 0 10 Blairsville 75 52 77 56 / 5 5 5 10 Cartersville 83 57 85 61 / 0 0 0 20 Columbus 87 61 88 64 / 0 0 0 10 Gainesville 78 57 81 61 / 0 0 0 10 Macon 86 56 86 60 / 0 0 0 5 Rome 84 57 85 60 / 0 0 5 20 Peachtree City 83 56 84 61 / 0 0 0 10 Vidalia 87 57 87 60 / 0 0 0 5 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Thiem LONG TERM....NListemaa AVIATION...Thiem