558 FXUS61 KBGM 100507 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 107 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Staying largely quiet through Friday with high pressure stretching from northern New England towards southeast Ontario, and low pressure just off the coast. Better chances for showers move through with a cold front late Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... High clouds are slowly advancing westward overnight. As a result, chances for river valley fog toward morning from interstate 81 and points east are decreasing. Similar to the late evening update with the main changes involving the clouds and temperatures. 7 pm update... Minor changes to the forecast. Mostly to clouds and temperatures tonight. 300 PM Update... Little change overnight through Thursday night as our weather will continue to be dictated by a ridge of high pressure over the northeastern US and an embedded surface low stalled out just off the coast. Chances for showers lingering across our easternmost zones through Thursday night. Cloud cover will in turn continue to vary from our western CWA to the east - with clear to partly cloudy across our westernmost zones and partly to mostly cloudy across the eastern half of our CWA. Otherwise quiet, with mainly light and variable winds overnight as temperatures fall back into the 40s. Patchy fog is possible again with light winds - though this would be more likely across our western zones, where skies remain clear to partly cloudy. Temperatures peak generally in the low 60s again Thursday before falling back into the mid/upper 40s overnight. Northeast winds do start to pick up slightly to around 5-10kts Thursay afternoon given a tightening pressure gradient in the vicinity of the deepening coastal low. Some gusts up to 20-25mph will be possible across the Catskills and Poconos. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 235 pm update... Main forecast concern in the short term remains centered around the chance of rain showers late Saturday into Saturday night. A narrow wedge of high pressure will be situated over central NY and most of ne PA Friday between bookend low pressures...one still off the coast and the other lifting newed through the wrn Great Lakes. Overall, weather conditions are expected to be fairly quiet on Friday with the exception of maybe a few light rain showers in the Catskills. The western half of the area will likely see more sun than clouds, and vice versa for areas to the east. Cloud cover will be increasing Saturday morning from west to east as a sfc trough/cold front branching off of the large low pressure system over nrn MN/wrn Ontario sweeps eastward into the Northeast. As this front tracks across central NY and ne PA, it will encounter a fair amt of dry air and likely dissipate quite extensively with its eastward progression. Therefore...will keep with the low chance pops and minimal qpf amounts in the forecast at this point. The rain should be mostly out of the area by late Saturday night. Temperatures Friday will continue to be mild...in the upper 50s, and lower to mid 60s by Saturday. Overnight lows in the upper 30s and 40s are forecast this weekend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 4 AM Update... Benign weather pattern is foreseen for early next week, with temperatures not far from climatological averages. Small chances for a few showers appear towards Tuesday. Models are in fairly good agreement on large stacked low very slowly edging northward from the upper Midwest into western Ontario early next week. This will generally keep our weather quiet, especially Sunday as a surface high drifts over the area. As disturbances pivot around the broad cyclonic flow around the low, one or more waves embedded in southwest flow over our region could bring scattered showers by Tuesday into Wednesday next week. That said, not really seeing anything of high impact whatsoever during the first half of next week. Highs throughout the period will generally be mid 50s-lower 60s, with lows of upper 30s-lower 40s. That is pretty much par of the course this time of year. && .AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR with winds under 10 knots throughout the TAF period. However, at KELM LIFR fog will continue to settle in toward sunrise and burn off around 14Z Thursday. Outlook... Friday through Saturday morning...VFR, but local restrictions in early morning fog possible Friday. Saturday afternoon through Sunday...A few restrictions possible in light rain showers. Monday...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HLC/MWG/TAC NEAR TERM...HLC/MWG/TAC SHORT TERM...BJT/MDP LONG TERM...MDP AVIATION...MWG