622 FXUS63 KAPX 100058 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 858 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 858 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2019 Shallow ground fog is already bedeviling APN this evening, where temps quickly plunged into the upper 40s. 50s are common elsewhere, but temp/dew point spreads are still closing together rapidly. We do have something of a pressure gradient, in the wake of high pressure well to our east. But reasonably sheltered locales should not have any problem decoupling. Temps have been tweaked slightly downward, and fog into ne lower MI has been accelerated. && .NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight) Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2019 High Impact Weather Potential: None Pattern synopsis and forecast: Large area of high pressure anchored over the Canadian Maritimes with broad region of return flow into the Great Lakes. Mid level thermal ridging slowly building toward the Great Lakes as well in response to developing lee side cyclogenesis along the front range. Generally quiet weather across the area tonight with mainly clear skies and cool temperatures. We will see an increase in mainly high clouds from the west later tonight. Lows generally in the 40s with a few typically colder locations likely dipping into the 30s. We will once again see some patchy fog - although not as much as last night. Most likely areas for fog development will be south/east of a line from Rogers City to Houghton Lake in northern lower. There also could be some patchy fog around Sault Ste Marie into the St. Mary's River System. && .SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Saturday) Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2019 High Impact Weather...Gusty winds late Friday An amplified upper-level trough centered over much of the western CONUS will continue to progress eastward into the Great Plains at the start of the forecast period. At the surface, strong high pressure sits underneath upper-level subsidence in the northwest U.S. while a lee cyclone formed in association with the trough becomes elongated across Kansas, where a quasi-stationary/cold front stretches diagonally into Ontario. Into Friday, this cyclone quickly redevelops and deepens overtop of this boundary along the Minnesota- Canada border as a strong jet max provides very favorable ascent aloft. In turn, pleasant weather across northern Michigan will come to an end for time being as an associated cold front quickly advances across the Great Lakes region on Friday into the overnight hours. Locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and a sharp drop in temperature is expected to come along with it. Rainfall near 0.50" is generally expected with higher amounts locally. Some nearshore areas could see wind gusts exceed gale criteria. Regardless, high temps in the upper 60s are expected for most across the area Thursday and Friday with increasing cloud cover ahead of the frontal passage. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2019 High Impact Weather...Gusty winds on Sunday As the trough continues to progress eastward, the system becomes vertically stacked. The cyclone will become stationary along the Minnesota-Canada border and gradually weaken as it becomes displaced from the favorable ascent aloft and the cold front occludes. Rainfall associated with the front should be mostly out of the area Saturday morning, but precip chances remain through portions of the weekend with lake effect rain potential behind the front. Aforementioned gusty winds and cold temps are expected through the weekend, with some gusts above 25 mph possible across land areas. High temps in the mid to upper 40s across the forecast area should continue into early next week. With cooler overnight temps and rain chances, the potential for some snowflakes exists; however, details regarding mixed precip are uncertain at this time. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 728 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2019 Some fog again early Thursday APN. A relatively steady-state forecast, with high pressure still poking into lower MI from the east. Fog is expected again overnight in ne lower MI, like last night. However, with a little more of a breeze behind the departing high, fog should not be quite as thick as last night. Still have APN seeing IFR conditions overnight. Maybe a touch of fog possible at MBL/PLN, but will not include in the current TAF. Otherwise VFR, with a touch more in the way of cirrus pushing into the region. Se winds, a touch gusty again on Thursday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2019 Expansive high pressure over New England into the Canadian Maritimes as next storm system develops to the lee of the Rockies. This storm system will eventually bring rain to northern Michigan by later Friday into Friday night. Winds will be southerly and under advisory levels through much of Thursday, but solid advisory level winds are expected to become increasingly widespread Thursday night into especially Friday/Friday night, when gales are possible as a cold front crosses the region. Cold advection and increasing overlake instability will keep widespread advisory level winds in play over the weekend. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JZ NEAR TERM...JK SHORT TERM...DJC/TL LONG TERM...DJC/TL AVIATION...JZ MARINE...JK