019 FXUS65 KABQ 100001 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 601 PM MDT Wed Oct 9 2019 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE A pattern shift will occur on Thursday, when a broad upper level low pressure system passing eastward over the northern and central Rockies will drive a strong and windy cold front southward through New Mexico. Wind gusts will generally vary from 25 to 35 kt Thursday afternoon and early evening, and there will be a sharp wind shift with the front. Much colder air is expected behind the front with an early season hard freeze in many locations Friday morning. 44 && .PREV DISCUSSION...340 PM MDT Wed Oct 9 2019... .SYNOPSIS... Dry, warm and breezy conditions will be the rule for the rest of the day. Critical fire weather conditions are possible through the evening across the northwest. Much colder conditions will arrive Thursday as a very strong cold front pushes through the state. Widespread sub-freezing temperatures are expected Thursday night. The time is now to prepare for the colder weather. Friday's high temperatures will be quite chilly for this time of year, generally up to 25 degrees below normal. A gradual warming trend is in store for the weekend and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Dry, warm and breezy conditions will persist through the rest of the day, however, big changes are on the way. A deep low/trough will continue to make it's way eastward across the central and northern Rockies through Thursday. An associated cold front, both the Pacific and back door segments, will press into New Mexico early Thursday. The front will continue to shift southward throughout the day. High temperatures will be tricky on Thursday and will depend largely on the timing of the front. Some areas will see their high temperatures before the noon hour. As for any precipitation, models continue to back off on QPF across northeast NM. A dusting right near the Colorado border remains possible, but no impacts are expected. The shock to the system will occur Thursday night, when widespread freezing temperatures are expected. A hard freeze is likely for most of the area. It's time to pick the last of your summer vegetables, swap out swamp coolers for heaters, and so on. Very few locations may miss out on the freeze, namely around Roswell and Socorro. Gusty winds will arrive along and behind the front, which will make it feel even colder. Wind chills will be in the single digits and teens for most areas early Friday morning. Friday's temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees below normal in most areas, but the winds will relax and there will be plenty of sunshine. A gradual warm up is in store over the weekend, though mornings will remain chilly in this dry airmass. Temperatures will warm through Monday. A weaker back door front will slide into northeast on Tuesday, cooling temperatures a few degrees. The GFS continues to waffle around regarding any tropical moisture that is brought up mid week. The GFS now brings the moisture up into Arizona Wednesday as it still has a baggy low over the California coast. As the low/trough shifts eastward, NM may see a bit of precipitation Wednesday night. However, the ECMWF continue to be weaker with the system, thus does not bring the moisture northward. 34 && .FIRE WEATHER... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU THROUGH 800 PM MDT... Say goodbye to the warm weather for a few days. A potent storm system in Idaho will move slowly east to southeast through Thursday night before accelerating east Friday. This deep trough will bring gusty winds and two cold fronts through the state, one from the west and one from the north. Temperatures will drop below normal for most areas Thursday and well below normal everywhere Friday. Temperatures will rebound this weekend, ending up above normal again by Sunday. They will remain above normal into next week. A little snow is forecast for the northeast Thursday and Thursday night, but only light accumulations are likely. Dry weather is expected Friday through early next week. After this evening there will be no widespread critical fire weather concerns. There could be a small area between Clines Corners and Santa Rosa Monday afternoon. Vent rates will drop Thursday and be mostly fair to poor Friday, before rebounding on Saturday. Areas of fair to poor vent rates Sunday and Monday will give way to widespread poor rates Tuesday. CHJ && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Hard Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for the following zones... NMZ501-517-518-522>524-528>537. Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for the following zones... NMZ509-519-525-539-540. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following zones... NMZ101. && $$