004 FXUS63 KICT 091541 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1041 AM CDT Wed Oct 9 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1040 AM CDT Wed Oct 9 2019 Mid level warm advection and moisture transport continues to lead to showers and a few embedded thunderstorms for areas mainly along and east of the Kansas Turnpike. Latest RAP suggests this moisture transport will slowly shift east-northeast for the afternoon hours with the showers ending from west to east with clearing skies returning to areas of central and south central KS. As this clearing moves in, the main question this afternoon into this evening, as how much recovery will occur to the atmosphere, across northern OK and south central KS. Afternoon heating will lead to instability increasing across northern OK for the late afternoon hours, with some of this instability advecting NE into south central KS. Bulk shear also increases to 35-40kts. But the main question will be whether a warming elevated mixed layer (Cap) will erode enough for convection to redevelop over south central and southern KS for the late afternoon hours. Latest bufkit soundings suggest that the cap will be difficult to erode, given the lack of any boundary or focus. So for now looks like a highly conditional chance of strong to possibly severe storms redeveloping with convective chances increasing across southern KS late this evening, as the low level moisture transport and low level jet increases helping to erode the cap. For now will keep chance pops for late this evening for areas east of the KS Turnpike. Ketcham && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night) Issued at 346 AM CDT Wed Oct 9 2019 A Freeze Watch has been issued for portions of central and south central KS overnight Thursday through Friday morning. Showers and storms will likely continue over the area this morning as LL moisture transport continues to be rather strong with plenty 850-700mb warm advection. Decent shear over south central and southeast KS may support pea size hail through the morning hours. Showers and storms will shift east and taper off over southeast KS this afternoon. The last day of seasonable highs, until next week, will occur today across most of central and south central KS. Enjoy highs in the 70s area wide. The big trough will dig a bit more southeast today and start pushing the strong cold front through KS late this evening. Another round of storms will be possible tonight ahead of the cold front as a region of strong moisture transport and strong warm air advection combine with a strengthening low level 850 mb jet to produce elevated scattered showers and storms. A couple storms overnight may be strong to marginally severe, with the main threat with the strongest storms being nickel to quarter size hail. By tomorrow morning the cold front will have bisected Kansas and be located right on the eastern fringe of the CWA. Very cold air will move in quickly behind the front. Therefore the forecast highs will likely need to be adjusted based on the timing of the front. It still appears that southeast KS may reach into the 70s, but the remaining counties may be limited to the 50s and 60s. Storms will develop over eastern south central and southeast KS along/ahead of the cold front tomorrow from about mid-day through early evening. A few storms may be severe with hail up to the size of quarters and wind gusts up to 60 mph possible. Strong convergence along the front with ample upper support will combine with and an axis of 1500-2000J/kg MLCAPE, mid level lapse rates of 6.5C/km, 30- 35kts of bulk shear, and hardly any CIN in the afternoon/early evening hours. Additional showers and storms will be possible tomorrow night across the area. Strong cold air advection will continue overnight into Friday morning, dropping temperatures into the upper 20s to near freezing across much of central and south central KS. Given such strong cold air advection it is likely that the current lows Friday morning are still a shave too warm. Regardless, temperatures in the upper 20s to freezing are expected from about Kingman County to Marion County and points north. A Freeze Watch has been issued for portions of central and south central KS. See Freeze Watch for more details. A rain/snow mix or a transition to all snow showers will be possible given the sub-freezing temperatures at the sfc and 850mb. Snow showers as far south as a line from southern Kingman County to far northern Sedgwick County to southern Marion County. will be possible. Additionally, with strong winds continuing across the area through Friday evening, wind chills will need to be watched for Friday morning. Portions of central and south central KS can expect wind chills Friday morning in the teens and 20s. The cold front will push into MO by Friday morning and dry subsident air will filter in through the day which should shut off any lingering showers. Unfortunately highs will struggle to even get into the low 50s on Friday making for a pretty chilly day. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 346 AM CDT Wed Oct 9 2019 Cold air advection will continue across much of the area overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Another cold start can be expected Saturday morning with temperatures near the freezing mark area wide. Thereafter a slow warming trend will begin. The upper trough will pull northeastward away from the area Saturday and through the weekend which will leave the subsident airmass overhead. A more zonal flow pattern can be expected to start the work week with no notable weather to forecast, other than high temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70s through mid week. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 633 AM CDT Wed Oct 9 2019 Scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue to move northeast from central into eastern Kansas this morning. While VFR conditions are expected to prevail away from any convection, reduced vsbys to MVFR and briefly to IFR can be expected in the showers and storms. Otherwise, strong and gusty south to southeast winds will prevail today with some low level wind shear expected again tonight. Deepening low pressure will move into central Kansas toward the end of the forecast valid period. KED && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 73 64 68 35 / 70 10 20 40 Hutchinson 74 60 65 32 / 40 10 10 30 Newton 72 62 67 33 / 70 20 20 30 ElDorado 71 62 69 36 / 70 20 20 50 Winfield-KWLD 73 64 70 36 / 70 20 20 40 Russell 76 50 51 29 / 10 10 10 30 Great Bend 77 51 51 29 / 10 10 10 30 Salina 74 60 64 32 / 30 10 10 30 McPherson 73 60 65 32 / 40 10 10 30 Coffeyville 71 63 74 40 / 50 60 60 60 Chanute 70 62 74 39 / 70 50 60 60 Iola 70 61 74 39 / 70 50 50 60 Parsons-KPPF 71 62 74 40 / 50 60 60 60 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for KSZ032-033-047>052-067-068-082. && $$ UPDATE...Ketcham SHORT TERM...KMB LONG TERM...KMB AVIATION...KED