324 FXUS62 KMHX 091137 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 737 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will develop and move off the Southeastern and Mid Atlantic coast through tonight. The low pressure area will remain stalled or move very slowly through late in the week off the Mid Atlantic coast. High pressure will build in from the north through Saturday. A cold front will move through the region Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 655 AM Wed...Increased cloud cover forecast a bit per the widespread low stratus this morning. Otherwise little change needed to the previous forecast. Prev disc...Latest analysis has an upper level trough rotating across the Mid-Atlantic early this morning with an attendant 60-70 kt upper level jet directly overhead. At the surface north winds prevail with low stratus overspreading all of the forecast area with the surface front stalled offshore and messy low pressure developing along it. The low is expected to lumber northward with high pressure ridging in from the north, and N/NE flow will continue for much of today. Hi-res guidance is hinting at a passing shower or two later today mainly for eastern mainland zones and OBX. Like yesterday some periods of drizzle are possible. Little in the way of measurable precip is expected and kept PoPs at slight chance only. Otherwise, cloudy conditions prevail as the inversion remains locked in place. Given the cloud cover leaned on the cooler side of guidance with highs struggling to get to 70 for northern zones, low 70s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 325 AM Wed...Another cloudy evening on tap as frontal inversion remains in place, although northerly winds should be a little weaker as the low slowly meanders north. More dry air begins to work its way in late in the period and have a mainly dry forecast inland although again a passing shower or two for far eastern zones is possible. Main challenge this period is temperatures as most guidance is showing temperatures dipping with weak CAA behind the low. Some of the more aggressive model forecasts (i.e. MOS and hi-res) have lows falling into the low 50s for the coastal plain reaching to coastal Onslow. However, with winds expected to stay up and the aforementioned cloud cover think these lows are overdone. Did drop temps a couple degrees from the previous forecast as a nod to guidance but still favor lows in the mid 50s to around 60 inland, and mid to upper 60s OBX. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 405 AM Wednesday...Near normal temperatures are expected through the period. Developing low pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast may produce mainly coastal showers Thursday. A cold front moving through the area Sunday could produce a few showers. The front will stall south of the area early next week keeping a chance of showers early next week. Thursday through Saturday...High pressure will build into the region from the Mid-Atlantic states while low pressure slowly drifts off of the Mid Atlantic coast into Saturday. These features will result in NE flow with a few lingering showers for coastal portions of the area (mainly the OBX) Thu. Otherwise dry weather anticipated for Eastern NC through Saturday. Regarding the offshore low, the main effects will be along the coast where impacts will include: rough surf, dangerous rip currents, beach erosion, ocean overwash and minor coastal flooding. See Tides/Coastal Flooding section below for additional information. The flow is forecast to accelerate away from the coast later Sat as a cold front approaches from the west. Sunday through Tuesday...A cold front with limited moisture is forecast to cross the region Sunday. Main effects will be to reinforce the seasonably cool temperatures, and to kick the quasi-stationary Western Atlantic low well out to sea. Models differ on how much precipitation will occur with this system Sunday, so will keep "silent" 20% PoP. The front is forecast to stall just south of the area Mon into Tue with enough moisture to warrant forecasting chance PoPs. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term /through Tonight/... As of 740 AM Wed...Currently IFR at EWN and widespread MVFR elsewhere. Some very light patchy drizzle and light rain remains possible mainly for areas from EWN east during the day but these should not bring any additional flight restrictions. EWN should join the rest of the sites to MVFR by about mid morning. Guidance continues to hint at some brief periods of VFR mainly for the coastal plain. Did include in the TAFs this cycle as almost all guidance is now showing this, but again favored the least aggressive LAV and GLAMP considering strong north flow and continued shallow moisture through the day would favor persistent stratus. Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 405 AM Wednesday...Expecting VFR conditions through the period as high pressure builds south over the area. Isolated could develop Sunday as a cold front moves into the area. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Tonight/... As of 330 AM Wed...Rough conditions continuing on all waters early this morning with seas 10-11 feet north of Cape Hatteras and 5-8 feet for cntrl and srn waters and strong N/NE winds with winds 20-30 kt with a few gale force gusts noted earlier. These conditions are expected to persist through today although winds have likely hit their peak intensity for now. All waters still under SCA headlines through Wednesday with the exception of inland waters which will see gusts drop below 25 knots shortly after sunrise. Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 405 AM Wednesday...Dangerous marine conditions are likely to continue through Sat, with strong winds and large, dangerous seas. An area of low pressure is forecast to linger off the Mid- Atlantic coast into early Sat before getting kicked well out to sea by an approaching cold front. The low has potential to become sub-tropical and NHC is monitoring for development. SCA conditions expected for all coastal waters and sounds through most of the period. The prolonged strong N/NE flow will result in double digit seas over the northern and central waters through Fri night and seas AOA 6 ft through Sunday evening. Winds are forecast to diminish to 10-15 kt early Sat and continue 15 kt or less Sun as elevated seas continue, especially north of Cape Lookout. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 405 AM Wed...An area of low pressure will move north and linger off the Mid-Atlantic coasts through Sat. The low has potential to become sub-tropical and NHC is monitoring for development. The main impacts will be: rough surf, dangerous rip currents, beach erosion, ocean overwash and minor coastal flooding. Beaches north of Cape Hatteras will be most vulnerable to erosion and overwash, though Cape Hatteras to Cape Lookout will also be a concern. Minor sound side coastal flooding will occur over areas adjacent to the Pamlico Sound and lower Neuse River, vulnerable to strong N/NNE winds. In addition, minor coastal flooding/overwash and beach erosion from the ocean will be possible north of Cape Hatteras Thu night into early Sat around the times of high tide. All coastal impacts will likely be prolonged for several days, if low remains mostly stationary well off the coast as the latest guidance continues to indicate. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196- 199-203>205. High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for AMZ136- 137. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ135-231. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ131-230. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ150-152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ156. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...MS SHORT TERM...MS LONG TERM...JME AVIATION...JME/MS MARINE...JME/MS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX