176 
FXUS64 KSHV 090009
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
709 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2019

.AVIATION...

For the ArkLaTex terminals all is well. NE5KT SFC is going calm 
already with SKC, patchy BR at daybreak not out of the question 
esp KLFK; otherwise VFR. Aloft, NE5-15KT is shallow and slacks and
backs to Westerly before 10kft with only 10-20KT for flight levels.
High pressure moving NE will allow return flow off the Gulf and 
SFC and low level winds to veer to E/SE on Wednesday 5-15KT. Aloft
the NE shallow veers to SE and the Westerlies column will back to
increasing SW flow ahead of our next big storm on approach Friday.
/24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2019/ 

SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Wednesday Night/

Surface high pressure centered over the New England States and
extending southwest across the Ohio Valley into the ArkLaTex to
maintain cool conditions across the region through Wednesday. 
Overnight low temperatures are forecast to fall into the lower 50s
areawide tonight with high temperatures on Wednesday forecast to 
climb into the lower 80s. 

Surface high and upper-level ridge to shift east on Wednesday
evening allowing for a return southerly flow and gradual warming
trend. Temperatures on Wednesday night to fall into the lower to
middle 60s. 

Otherwise, mostly clear skies to prevail through the period. /05/

LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/

Deep upper troughing creating stg warm air advection on Thursday 
with aftn highs mainly in the upper 80s to lower 90s, except 
possible middle 80s far north where some cumulus clouds may merge 
into ceilings by later in aftn, although keeping isold pops just nw 
of the cwa until around sunset. With dewpoints rising to the middle 
and upper 60s, heat index readings may rise to the middle to upper 
90s. However, with the strongest cold front thus far of the season 
beginning to move swd into the area Thursday eve, stg lift along 
front will ignite tstms, although svr potential may be reduced due 
to the timing of this activity in area as stgr dynamics remain well 
to the north where upper low tracks across Iowa on Friday. 

Winds from the north behind the front will be stronger than the 
southerly winds ahead of the system and may warrant a lake wind 
advisory on Friday. Between the wind and a thick layer of low clouds 
contained within steep low lvl inversion, temps may actually drop 
thru the daytime, along with dewpoints. Rain chances will remain 
high behind the front and may be enough large scale lift for 
elevated tstms above the inversion.  Once the clouds clear up and 
winds subside some, temps will quickly fall Friday eve with lows 
reaching the 40s across at least nrn portions of the region. 
Saturday night may be the coldest night at some locations with 40s 
for at least most of the region and some upper 30s possible north as 
skies go into sunset already clear and winds may fall to near calm. 
Daytime temps on Saturday will remain cool in the mid to upper 60s 
and then moderate back into 70s by Sunday. A warm front is expected 
to lift back northward into the area on Monday bringing a chance for 
more rain to the area. /07/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  85  65  89 /   0   0   0   0 
MLU  57  87  65  90 /   0   0   0  10 
DEQ  51  80  62  86 /   0   0   0  10 
TXK  52  82  63  86 /   0   0   0   0 
ELD  51  84  62  89 /   0   0   0   0 
TYR  57  85  67  89 /   0   0   0   0 
GGG  55  85  65  89 /   0   0   0   0 
LFK  58  86  67  89 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/05/07