747 FXUS64 KHUN 090009 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 709 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2019 .UPDATE... For 00Z TAFS. && .NEAR TERM...(Tonight) Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2019 An area of stratus across parts of the forecast area continued to erode from the effects of daytime heating and mixing. This pesky area of clouds that remained covered an area roughly from SW of Crossville TN to Winchester, Huntsville and the Bankhead Nat'l Forest and points to the NW. Visible satellite animation continued to show the clouds thinning as they faded. Temperatures under these clouds have ranged in the mid/upper 60s, while outside of them (especially NW AL) high temperatures have warmed to around 80. Light showers, some forming south of I-20 west of the AL/GA border, and over the western Carolinas and NE GA continue moving away from the region. The stratus should be faded by the time evening comes along. Clear skies, and plenty of moisture from recent rainfall will yield a humid night, with dew development. Also have a risk of patchy fog as well, generated from the ESTF fog tool, which kept overall coverage limited. Winds from the models in most locations remain at or above 3 knots, but lighter winds could lead to more fog, some of it possibly dense in the more prone locations. .SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday) Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2019 Any fog that is around Wednesday morning should quickly dissipate shortly after sunrise from heating and mixing. Low temperatures should cool into the mid 50s. With more sun than clouds, a nice warmup is expected, with high temperatures rising into the lower 80s; above seasonal norms of ~77, not no where close to the hot levels we had last week. Slightly warmer Wednesday night with lows in the lower 60s. Highs on Thursday should rise a tad more, into the mid 80s. An item of concern is a return of lower level moisture on Thursday. The GFS was the wetter model showing light showers along the MS/AL border. The ECMWF and NAM were lighter showing a hint of showers and the end of the HiRes ARW/NMM runs were dry. Given the overall dry trend of late, opted for a dry forecast on Thursday. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2019 Friday looks to be the warmest day of the week, as the upper ridge axis slowly slides east toward the Appalachians. High temperatures look to reach into the upper 80s thanks to WAA ahead of an approaching cold front. Although timing discrepancies are a little better with 12z guidance, am not confident enough to go any higher than low chance PoPs Friday night and Saturday. As of now, our best chances for rain with this system look to be overnight Friday. Given that the best forcing with this system looks to be well to our north, it does not appear that we will see much in the way of beneficial rains from this system. What we will see however, is the coldest air in the Valley since April, with overnight lows falling into the low 40s and perhaps even upper 30s early Sunday morning. After the cold frontal passage Saturday, the rest of the weekend looks rather pleasant as sfc high pressure builds over the southeast. A gradual warming trend will kick off the next work week, as high temps approach 80 degrees by Monday and overnight lows warm back up into the 50s. Zonal flow will settle in aloft, setting the stage for a few weak disturbances across the area toward midweek. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 709 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2019 Persistent stratus remained over the area, from near FYM, extending W-SW along the NW TN/AL border to west of the Golden Triangle. MVFR CIGs continued under these clouds, affecting a number of terminals including FYM, DCU, MSL and TUP. Short term guidance has this stratus thinning as it drifts to the SW. As such, kept MVFR CIGs at MSL a bit longer as the cloud deck persists over NW AL. Conditions over NW AL should improve towards 09/0200Z as the clouds dissipate and/or move south of the region. Mostly clear skies in the overnight along with residual moisture from recent rainfall will be favorable for patchy fog development before daybreak Wed. Fog that forms should dissipate after daybreak with VFR conditions expected for the remainder of the TAF. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RSB SHORT TERM...RSB LONG TERM...25 AVIATION...RSB For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.