527 FXUS64 KSJT 082339 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 639 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2019 .AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ VFR conditions prevail across all the terminals this evening. Low clouds developing over the Hill Country overnight may spread northward to the I-10 corridor in the early morning hours. This may result in a brief period of MVFR ceilings at KJCT and KSOA. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected on Tuesday. Gusty southerly winds will develop in the morning and persist into the evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 253 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2019/ SHORT TERM... (Tonight and tomorrow) After a brief taste of fall, the warmer temperatures return... (Tonight) With the return of the southerly winds, low level moisture has returned to the area. Dew points hovering in the 50s will keep overnight lows from dropping to the temperatures we saw this morning, even with the clear skies, we will see this evening. Expect overnight lows to be in the upper 50s to low 60s. (Wednesday) The next storm system is taking form out across the western CONUS and this will be our next chance of precipitation and another burst of cold air. Before this system arrives, the development of a lee trough across the base of the Rockie Mountains will tighten the pressure gradient across much of Texas. Breezy south to southeasterly winds will be common Wednesday afternoon pumping in some deep Gulf of Mexico moisture back across west Central Texas. Temperatures will respond accordingly with afternoon highs warming back into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees under mostly sunny skies. LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) ..Strong front to bring storms and cooler temperatures by the end of the week... (Thursday through Friday) Thursday will see a wide range of weather swings as we are expecting the arrival of a strong cold front to begin impacting the area Thursday evening into Friday morning. Ahead of the front, strong surface heating aided by strong southerly flow will bring a moist and unstable airmass across the region. With afternoon heating, CAPE values are expected to climb into the 1500 to 2000 J/Kg range. Thunderstorm development seems likely during the afternoon and this initial activity should remain isolated in coverage but these storms could pose a severe weather threat. Main hazards will be large hail, damaging winds and heavy rainfall. As the front approaches more widespread development along the front will continue to pose a severe risk with some embedded stronger cores. Temperatures ahead of the front will surge into the low to mid 90s and we may even see upper 90s with the influence of some compressional heating along the front. The front will pass through the Big Country during the evening hours on Thursday and will bring much cooler temperatures and an end to the rain chances. The front will be a fast moving front and should be through the Concho Valley early Friday morning and through the Interstate 10 corridor by sunrise Friday morning, with the rain chances ending from north to south throughout the morning on Friday. Lingering cloud cover will play a role in max temperatures on Friday. The NAM model wants to keep the area socked in with clouds and shows strong CAA moving into West Central Texas backed by gusty northeasterly winds that will be blowing between 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. This scenario gives highs staying in the 40s and is the colder solution. The GFS keeps some clouds around but hints at skies becoming partly cloudy and allowing some sun during the afternoon. This heating will offset the strong CAA and the GFS shows highs in the low 60s and is the warmest solution. Decided to take the GFS solution and adjust highs down a degree or two to leave some margin for error if the clouds do decided to stick around longer. Highs on Friday will be in the upper 50s for most areas. Surface high pressure quickly builds in Friday night and the skies should begin to clear. Overnight lows Friday have the potential to crater with the possibility of radiational cooling during the evening. This is something we will need to watch. Nevertheless, overnight lows on Friday will be the coldest yet of the season with lows ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s. (Saturday through next Tuesday) The warmup begins on Saturday as the surface high moves off to the east and we return to a southerly flow Saturday afternoon. It should be a slow and gradual warmup with highs on Saturday remain on the cooler side with much of the area seeing highs in the lower 70s and by Sunday we are back up into the upper 70s to lower 80s with temperatures climbing back into the mid to upper 80s. By Tuesday we are watching the possibility of some rain chances returning to the forecast. The features we are watching are beginning to show up in the long range models but at this time confidence is low with the evolution of these features and thus keep the PoPs low across the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 62 89 70 93 / 5 5 0 20 San Angelo 62 90 70 96 / 5 5 0 5 Junction 60 88 69 94 / 5 5 0 5 Brownwood 58 89 68 94 / 5 5 0 10 Sweetwater 62 88 70 92 / 5 5 0 5 Ozona 61 86 67 92 / 5 5 0 5 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 42