994 
FXUS65 KFGZ 071626
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
926 AM MST Mon Oct 7 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather, generally light winds and near-normal
temperatures will continue Today. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms return to portions of eastern Arizona Tuesday.
Breezy southwest winds will develop Wednesday, shifting to the
northwest Thursday with a cold front passage. Expect a noticeable
drop in temperatures Thursday afternoon and Friday followed by a
warming trend going into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...Dry and pleasant fall weather will continue today with
fairly light winds. Moisture interacting with a weak trough will
bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to eastern Arizona
late tonight through Tuesday afternoon, with mainly clear
conditions elsewhere. These trends are covered in current forecast
and no updates are needed this morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /336 AM MST/...Warm and dry conditions will
continue today as a weak zonal flow continues under the influence
of a large scale ridge off the Pacific Coast of Mexico. A weak
shortwave trough will transit the ridge, causing cloudy
conditions, and isolated showers over the higher terrain...mainly
over Apache County Tuesday afternoon.

Winds will begin to increase Wednesday as a large scale trough
moves over the Rocky Mountains. Most of the moisture and
instability will occur north of Arizona. A strong pressure
gradient will allow for gusty afternoons to develop Wednesday and
remain strong Thursday as a cold front crosses northern Arizona.
Temperatures will be markedly cooler on Thursday and Friday behind
the front, before rebounding under the influence of a shortwave
ridge over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Expect VFR conditions for 
the next 24 hours. Surface winds southwest 5-10kt gusts to 20kt 
through 01z then variable to 10 kt. Aviation discussion not updated 
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are 
possible Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon from the White 
Mountains north to the Defiance Plateau. The best chances will be 
Tuesday afternoon near the White Mountains.

Wednesday through Friday...Increasing southwest winds will lead to 
near critical fire weather conditions for areas north of the 
Mogollon Rim on Wednesday and in southern portions of Apache County 
on Thursday. Temperatures cool significantly behind a dry cold front 
Thursday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ/Suk
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff