127 FXUS62 KTAE 070610 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 210 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2019 .NEAR TERM [Through Today]... In the upper levels, a trough is digging into the region today. At the surface, a weakening cold front will be just northwest of the region today. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms today will be in South Central Georgia and the Florida Big Bend as a minor shortwave moves through this evening (POPs 50 to 70 percent). Elsewhere, POPs will be 30 to 50 percent today. With increasing rain chances and cloud cover today, highs will be cooler in the 80s. However, with increasing moisture, the heat index will be in the lower 90s or near 90. .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]... A weak frontal boundary will move slowly through the region from northwest to southeast on Tuesday and Tuesday Night. Precipitable Water values are around 1.5 inches, but forcing for ascent is rather weak, so widespread rainfall is not expected. Instability is limited, so kept mention of thunder to isolated. A drier air mass will follow on Wednesday as shortwave ridging moves in aloft. The frontal boundary is more of a demarcation of drier air, with little impact to temperatures, which will remain several degrees above normal, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. .LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]... Deep layer ridging builds in for Thursday and Friday with dry weather expected and temperatures remaining several degrees above normal. The models and their respective ensembles are in reasonable agreement in moving a cold front through the region on Saturday and Saturday Night, but differ thereafter on whether or not it stalls across the area into early next week. Similar to the last boundary, the dynamics do not favor widespread rainfall. Nonetheless, elevated chances for precip will exist on Saturday, dependent on the timing of the front, which is expected to slow down across the area. Temperatures will range from the mid-80s to around 90 degrees through the period. && .AVIATION... [Through 06Z Tuesday] MVFR conditions are expected through mid to late morning. Showers and thunderstorms will be isolated (20 to 30 percent) in the afternoon and evening hours. Northeasterly winds will be lighter today. && .MARINE... Easterly winds up to around 15 knots with seas outside of Apalachee Bay around 2 to 4 feet will prevail through much of the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain chances will be higher today ranging from 30 to 70 percent with the best chance in South Central Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. No fire weather concerns. && .HYDROLOGY... Despite a slightly wetter pattern over the next seven days, precip amounts will generally remain under one-half an inch, with locally higher values possible. Over the past 30 days, large parts of the region have had less than 25 percent of normal precip, with moderate drought across much of the area, along with pockets of severe to extreme drought. Most local rivers also have stream flows below normal levels, and this is expected to continue, with no flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 86 69 91 68 90 / 60 20 20 10 20 Panama City 87 72 89 71 88 / 40 30 20 10 20 Dothan 88 67 89 66 89 / 30 20 20 10 10 Albany 87 68 89 67 87 / 30 10 10 10 10 Valdosta 84 69 89 67 87 / 60 10 20 10 20 Cross City 83 71 89 70 87 / 70 30 40 20 40 Apalachicola 85 72 86 72 85 / 50 40 20 20 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...McD SHORT TERM...LF LONG TERM...LF AVIATION...McD MARINE...LF FIRE WEATHER...McD HYDROLOGY...LF