931 
FXUS65 KFGZ 070339
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
839 PM MST Sun Oct 6 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather, generally light winds and near-normal
temperatures will continue through Monday. Chances for showers 
and thunderstorms return to portions of eastern Arizona Tuesday. 
Breezy southwest winds are likely Wednesday, shifting to the 
northwest Thursday with a cold front passage. Expect a noticeable 
drop in temperatures Thursday afternoon and Friday followed by a 
warming trend going into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...Clear skies are being observed across northern Arizona
again this evening. Smoke from a prescribed fire northeast of
Williams may impact the Williams area overnight. In addition, a
brief and small wildfire on the north side of Flagstaff this
evening may bring smoke to portions of the Flagstaff area
overnight. Otherwise, clear skies and calm weather are in store
with no forecast updates needed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /310 PM MST/...Ridging off the west coast and a
longwave trough across the plains states puts northern Arizona
under a dry northwest flow aloft through mid week. A weak
shortwave trough passes through the area bringing a chance for
showers and thunderstorms to Eastern Arizona Tuesday. Wednesday
will see the longwave pattern shift to the west as a deep trough
drops down from the Pacific Northwest. Most of the precipitation
associated with this low pressure system will stay to our north
and east, but we will see strong southwest afternoon winds north
of the Mogollon Rim Wednesday. These winds will shift to the
northwest Thursday with the stronger winds across the eastern
half of the region. A dry cold front passage Thursday will bring
colder air to the area with temperatures dropping to 5 to 15
degrees below the seasonal average through Friday. Weak ridging
builds in through the weekend and early next week warming
temperatures to near normal.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Expect VFR conditions through the 
TAF period. Surface winds will be light and variable through 15Z. 
Winds will pick up again after 16Z from the south to southwest at 5-
10G15-20 kts. Some lofted smoke is possible near KCMR tonight. 
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...There is a slight chance for isolated showers and 
thunderstorms in the White Mountains area and north to the Defiance 
Plateau Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday through Friday...Increased southwest winds will lead to 
near critical fire weather conditions in Coconino County and Navajo 
County north of the Mogollon Rim Wednesday and southern Apache 
County Thursday. Temperatures cool significantly behind a dry cold 
front Thursday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT/DB
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...DB


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff