295 FXUS63 KMPX 051819 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 119 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2019 .Updated for 18Z Aviation Discussion... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2019 && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 358 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2019 An impressive cyclone continues to develop early this morning across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A digging trough will allow this system to continue intensifying through the day. Satellite imagery shows great upper diffluence in the cold sector, a pronounced dry slot now pushing into the eastern Plains, and cooling cloud tops across Minnesota. Excellent moisture transport across western Iowa and the eastern Plains on a 55 kt LLJ has led rain to become widespread during the overnight. Heavy bands within this shield will further develop during the next several hours. CAMs suggest a swath of heavier rain totals from southwest MN to east central MN and west central WI where 2 inches are a possibility. There have been embedded thunderstorms within this rain shield as well, mostly across southern MN on the nose of the LLJ. The dry slot will push across the region later this morning which will end the steadier and heavier rains. Scattered showers or areas of drizzle will persist for the rest of the day. By this evening, the system will head far enough northeast and take the moisture with it so we'll have clearing skies. Another trough rotating around the system will dive southeast into the Upper Mississippi Valley Sunday afternoon. Increasing clouds and isolated to scattered showers are possible with this feature, along and north of I-94. Winds will shift west with the cold front/dry slot, and become gustier this afternoon. Forecast soundings are a little less impressive than yesterday, but gusts of 35 kts are possible across western MN. These values fall short of Wind Advisory criteria. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 358 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2019 Still looks to be quiet weatherwise for much of the period, but with some significant changes at the tail end of things. This weekend's shortwave trough will be exiting to the east Sunday and Monday, with significant amplification of the upper flow taking place through midweek as a deep trough develops over western North America. This will lead to dry southwest upper flow across our area with advection occurring from the southern Rockies. However, the western upper trough will shift eastward from Thursday into the weekend, bringing a strong cold front across our area late Thursday. There remains some disagreement on the surface low development, and how long we'll keep forcing over our area as much colder air (cold enough for mixed precipitation) arrives, but there is enough agreement to include some mention of snow mixing with rain chances for most of the area from late Thursday night into Friday. Friday and Friday night look to be cold and blustery regardless of precipitation chances, so it will certainly feel like the first taste of winter even if we don't see many snowflakes in the area. However, some of the ensemble output suggests we could keep sufficient forcing and moisture around as cold air arrives, leading some ECMWF ensemble members to produce accumulating snow for at least portions of the area. For now, confidence in the much colder air is fairly high, so that should be the main focus, but will need to keep an eye on things in case chances for more meaningful mixed precipitation/snowfall increases. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2019 MVFR/IFR clouds and drizzle are slow to exit the region this afternoon, but should see VFR conditions gradually settle in from west to east as the low pressure system lifts northeast this evening and tonight. Southerly winds will eventually become westerly, with gusts picking up again late Sunday morning. KMSP... Low clouds and drizzle are slowly shifting eastward, so have delayed the timing of when the MVFR and VFR conditions will arrive. Southerly winds will become westerly, with gusts returning on Sunday. Should start out the day with clear skies, and then have clouds increase in the afternoon along with a few showers. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Mon...VFR. Winds W 5-10 kts. Tue...VFR. Winds SW 20G30 kts. Wed...VFR. Wind S at 20G30 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF LONG TERM... AVIATION...JRB