146 
FXUS64 KLUB 050512
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1212 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2019

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. There are a
few isolated rain showers across the region which could affect LBB
or PVW, but no change in flight category is expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 220 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
More fall like weather is expected for the region over the week 
ahead. An upper level trough will continue to move through the 
intermountain west for the rest of today and this evening. This has 
set up a surface pressure trough in eastern New Mexico. Showers and 
thunderstorms that form within this trough may drift into the 
western South Plains and extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle late 
this evening. Most jet level energy will be coming out to the 
northwest of the area. Therefore, northeastern New Mexico will be 
favored for convection chances. Also, surface heating across the Big 
County into the southern Rolling Plains may be able to generate some 
isolated showers or thunderstorms under a moist atmosphere late this 
afternoon but these chances are low. Fog or low stratus will again 
be possible over the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle Saturday 
morning which is where most rain fell yesterday. However, models are 
not too excited about this possibility.

This same system moving across the intermountain west today will 
send a cold front to the area on Saturday. Models have trended 
bullish with the southward movement of this front progressing the 
front well into the South Plains. The front will receive a bigger 
push on Sunday afternoon and evening with strong winds behind the 
front. Depending on the speed of the front on Sunday, we could see 
showers and possibly thunderstorms develop over the Rolling Plains. 
However, most lift will be located east of the area with a trough 
swinging across the Texas Panhandle leading to most likely a brief 
chance of precipitation Sunday afternoon and evening. The speed of 
the front will also have an impact on Sunday maximum temperatures. 
Sunday could be a day with a strong contrast of temperatures from 
north to south. Surface ridging and strong dry advection will spill 
into the area on Monday leading to a cool morning and afternoon. 
Temperatures could drop into the 30s in the southwestern Texas 
Panhandle on Monday morning.

A generally dry forecast is expected after the weekend with short 
wave ridging aloft on Monday. A weak short wave trough will move 
overhead on Tuesday evening. However, moisture content at mid and 
upper levels will not be too favorable for measurable precipitation. 
A stronger upper trough will swing across the center of the country 
on Thursday and Friday sending another strong cold front through the 
area and even cooler temperatures.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

51/99/99