196 FXUS64 KLUB 041115 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 615 AM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019 .AVIATION... LIFR conditions at all terminals. LBB is currently below minimums with VIS of 1/4 mile and VV of 200ft. This should begin to lift by mid morning to at least low end IFR. Conditions should continue to improve into the afternoon with VFR condtions returning to all terminals after 18Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 445 AM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019/ UPDATE... Did a quick update to issue a Dense Fog Advisory for the Caprock until 11. Area observations and looking at traffic cameras across the region show areas of dense fog developing or in place. How fast the fog will burn off remains uncertain still so ran the advisory through late morning. Jordan PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 AM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019/ DISCUSSION... Showers and storms are once again moving across the northwestern South Plains into the southwestern Texas Panhandle early this morning underneath the subtropical moisture plume that has been stubborn in leaving the region. Expect to see this activity gradually shift northward as what is likely a weak shortwave moves away from the region. Closer to the surface, easterly upslope flow in the post-frontal regime has produced a stratus deck with patchy drizzle, light rain, and fog across the forecast area that is slowly expanding southward with time. As is usually the case in this regime, the big question will be when will the low clouds and fog start to break up which most models have by late this morning to around noon. However, isentropic lift remains fairly strong until late afternoon so there is a potential for low clouds to hang on through all of today which means high temperatures are too warm, especially across the Rolling Plains. Heading into the weekend, we see a brief window of southwesterly flow at the surface as flow aloft briefly transitions to zonal and we see a lee surface trough help veer winds to the south and southwest. At the same time, another weak front pushes into the Panhandle stalling out just north of the forecast area Saturday afternoon. This front gets a second shove southward Sunday as a weak trough swings out into the Central Plains. The front should be through the forecast area by sunset Sunday which will once again set up quite a temperature gradient for highs on Sunday, ranging from low 70s north to upper 80s south. Precipitation chances look pretty slim with the front Sunday and should be limited to the southern half of the forecast area in the frontal zone. This will be where surface moisture will pool and the axis of mid-level moisture will be maximized. Depending on how fast or slow the front is and where the best moisture will be, PoP forecasts will probably change in coverage and location as we head towards Sunday night. Northwest flow sets up for Monday but we should see highs in the upper 60s with the surface ridge over or near the area. Gradually surface wind will return to the south to southwest allowing us to warm back up into the mid to upper 80s by Wednesday. At the same time surface flow returns to the south, low-level moisture will be on the increase and we see a trough swing out into the Central Plains. Models are all breaking out precipitation Tuesday afternoon into evening with that wave swinging out. As the wave pushes further east, a strong cold front will rapidly move south during the day Thursday. The ECMWF is faster by about 6-12 hours than the GFS so temperatures will be tricky for Thursday. Low- level moisture will have been pushed east of the forecast area ahead of the front on Thursday so precipitation chances are looking pretty slim. Then for the very end of the forecast, temperatures are looking below normal with highs in the low to mid 60s and lows in the low to mid 40s for Saturday morning. Jordan && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for TXZ021>024- 027>030-033>036-039>042. && $$ 51/99/99