337 FXUS62 KCAE 040704 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 304 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019 .SYNOPSIS... One more fair and hot day today, then a back door front will come through tonight bringing in cooler temps along with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. The front will slowly move to our south and west Saturday but cloudiness and some light shower activity expected to remain, along with much cooler temps. Another front will move into the region late Monday into Tuesday and provide a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms, followed by fair conditions with seasonal temperatures mid to late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Morning analysis shows the upper ridge remains entrenched over the southeastern states while a cold front extended from central New York through West Virginia into central Arkansas. The front will continue to push southeast while a backdoor front will be pushing southward from the Mid-Atlantic coast through the afternoon hours. Ahead of the cold front we expect one more day of record breaking temperatures despite some weakening of the upper ridge. Highs are expected in the mid to upper 90s, 15-20 degrees above normal. There is not much convergence along the front this afternoon during peak heating as winds shift to the northeast late morning and through the afternoon so have no pops through the day. However, by 00z and beyond, the surge of cooler and drier air will push through the forecast area and strong surface convergence is forecast which may support isolated or scattered showers with some possible thunderstorms. The Pee Dee region and eastern Midlands are most favored areas for much needed precipitation. Temperatures are expected to steadily fall after midnight as a cold air damming regime develops with northeasterly surface winds and west-southwesterly winds aloft resulting in low clouds. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The back door front will continue to slowly push to our west and south. Upper ridge still in place overhead though slowly weakening. Models indicate lingering cloud cover behind the front, along with weak isentropic lift to maintain some chance of light shower/rain activity. By Sunday, upper and surface high pressure behind the front along to shift east offshore as an upper trough and surface front approach from the west. Lingering surface wedginess and associated cloudiness and cooler temps may be slow to erode, but may gradually do so from south to north during the day. A moist easterly low level flow off the Atlantic may provide some shower chances in the afternoon with daytime heating mainly near the eroding wedge boundary and points to the south and east. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Upper trough and surface front progged to move through late Monday into Tuesday, bringing a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Due to recent persistent drought pattern, will lean towards the lower side of POP guidance. The front appears to hang up to our south, as upper ridginess develops again over the E CONUS behind the departing upper trough. Surface high pressure center to shift into the NE. Fair conditions and seasonal temps expected Wed thru Fri for our forecast area. Another front progged to move in Fri nt/Sat time frame, mainly beyond the current forecast period. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the period...except for early morning restrictions possible at AGS. Mainly clear skies late this evening with light southerly wind at most terminals except AGS where winds are calm. A backdoor cold front will cross the area this afternoon and overnight bringing a chance of showers but confidence in exact timing and coverage too low to include in the forecast at this time. Overnight the potential for fog and stratus development remains low with the exception of AGS and have continued with MVFR fog. Have included TEMPO fog at OGB around sunrise as conditions are very similar to last night. Fog will quickly mix out with sunrise with the remainder of the period VFR. Clouds will increase very late in the period ahead of the front however bases will remain above 3kft. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Early morning fog or stratus and associated restrictions possible Saturday through Tuesday. Restrictions possible in mainly diurnal convection Monday and Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... A late season heat wave has produced several record high daily temperature records during late September and early October. Record heat is forecast again Friday. Augusta Regional Airport (AGS) daily high temperature records: 10/3: 100 set in 2019. Previous record 94 degrees set in 1986. 10/4: 97 degrees set in 1954. Augusta has established a new all-time high temperature record for the month of October, surpassing the previous record of 97 set on October 4th, 5th, and 6th in the year 1954. The daily high temperature record has now been either tied or broken on eight of the past nine days in Augusta beginning 9/25. Daily temperature records in the Augusta Area date back to 1873. Columbia Metro Airport (CAE) daily high temperature records: 10/3: 100 set in 2019. Previous record 95 degrees set in 1986. 10/4: 97 degrees set in 1954. Four high temperature records have occurred during the past eight days in Columbia. Daily temperature records in the Columbia Area date back to 1887. Columbia's record high for the month of October is 101 set October 5th in 1954. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$