067 FXUS64 KJAN 040333 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1033 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019 .UPDATE... Updated for evening discussion. && .DISCUSSION... Convective precipitation has been slow to diminish this evening and have slowed down the timing some. Otherwise, all is on track and no significant adjustments were necessary in this update. Prior discussion below: Tonight & Friday: As the shortwave trough moves through the region through this evening & before midnight, expect any lingering showers & storms to gradually wind down. The mid-level ridge aloft will continue to flatten & a weak frontal system will dive down from the north overnight. Overall continued above normal warmth can be expected tonight, with lows falling into the upper 60s to low 70s. Some patchy fog is possible near daybreak in the Pine Belt, due to light winds & high humidity. This will erode by daybreak. Another anomalous warm day is expected to end the week on Friday. However, a strong trough will dive through the northeast & drag a cold front slowly into our northern half of the area into Friday. Overall, this will only focus any moisture & rain & storm chances west of the Mississippi River & south of the I-20 corridor. The ridge will continue to flatten aloft, leading to some decreasing low- thermal warmth. Due to some slight decrease, highs will still reach into the top 5 warmest but thankfully, record warmth will be a little harder to come by. Highs will still be in the low-mid 90s, with near 90 degrees in the Delta. Drier air will move in the north & humidity will drop with heat indices generally in the upper 90s. Dewpoints will drop into the low 60s or possibly even lower in the Delta. Winds will be gusty, so some fire danger can't be ruled out. However, it seems to be just high enough humidity to the potential. Held off any mention in the HWO. In coordination with the state forestry commission & local offices, a fire danger statement has been sent out. This will have to be continued to be evaluated for any increasing potential. /DC/ Friday night through next Wednesday... Expect mainly dry conditions Friday night and Saturday behind the cold front. Lows Friday night will be in the mid 60s, with highs Saturday in the low to mid 90s. For Sunday, a strong frontal system will move towards the area, with showers and storms possible out ahead of this system. Highs Sunday will mainly be around 90. Chances for showers and storms will continue Monday as the cold front moves through the area. Highs Monday will be cooler, ranging from the middle 70s north to the lower 80s south. Lows Monday night will fall into the 50s area wide as cooler and drier air continues moving into the region behind the cold front. Expect dry conditions Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure continues its influence across the CWA. Highs Tuesday will be in the middle 70s to lower 80s, and the lower to middle 80s on Wednesday. /27/ && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF discussion: VFR conditions with mostly light northeast surface wind can be expected for the most part through the forecast period. Isolated SHRA/TSRA this evening could briefly impact the JAN/MEI to HBG/PIB area. There is some concern for IFR category fog early Friday morning given overnight cooling and the presence of a weak, slow- moving surface front, especially at sites that receive any rainfall as we go through early evening. /EC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 71 93 68 94 / 29 16 5 8 Meridian 70 95 67 95 / 29 15 4 9 Vicksburg 71 93 68 95 / 29 16 4 7 Hattiesburg 70 93 67 93 / 20 29 10 10 Natchez 70 92 68 93 / 40 23 11 8 Greenville 71 90 67 93 / 20 11 2 5 Greenwood 72 90 67 93 / 10 6 2 6 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$