969 FXUS62 KJAX 040051 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 851 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019 .UPDATE...With ridge axis over the area with clear skies and light winds potential for areas of fog especially inland areas where winds will be lightest and best moisture pooling. && .AVIATION... [Through 00Z Saturday] Potential for areas of late night and early morning fog especially at the inland sites. Have prevailing MVFR at JAX...VQQ...and GNV with ocnl IFR at GNV and VQQ between 09Z-12Z. JAX may need to be amended for possible IFR later tonight aft 09Z. Any fog that does form is expected to rapidly lift by around 13Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION [334 PM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Deep layer ridging is in place over the area. Low and mid level WV imagery show a very dry in place, with only slightly higher moisture indicated in the upper level WV imagery. Satellite estimated PW values are around 1-1.2 inches from Flagler Beach, FL north to Brunswick, GA and west across the Suwanee Valley, around 1.5 inches along the Altamaha River. Models show even lower PW values (< 1 inch) will advect in through the afternoon and evening hours. As a result, we'll struggle to get any showers going despite the moderate onshore flow. Highs will be near record levels over inland portions of the area today, peaking in the low to mid 90s. Overnight, temperatures will dip into the mid to upper 60s, with low 70s along the immediate coastline. Under clear skies and light winds, patchy fog will be possible late tonight/early tomorrow morning, mostly across inland portions of the area. .SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]... Locally, the area will be situated on the southern periphery of the low level ridge, with mostly zonal flow aloft. Hot and dry conditions are forecast yet again Friday and Friday night, with highs peaking in the low to mid 90s and lows in the mid to upper 60s, low 70s along the immediate coastline. A stray shower or two will be possible Friday afternoon. On a larger scale, however, Fri-Fri night will see an upper level +PV anomaly deepen an upper trough over the NE US, pushing its influence further south. This will help to push a backdoor cold front into the area on Saturday, with onshore winds increasing again and a return for chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms. With higher cloud coverage and rain chances, daytime temperatures will be slightly cooler, peaking in the upper 80s to low 90s in the afternoon, but still falling into the mid to upper 60s overnight. .LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]... The upper level +PV anomaly driving the backdoor cold front will swing east-northeastward early next week, stalling out the weak front across our area and allowing it to dissipate with the loss of upper level enhancement. Another +PV anomaly will move into the Nrn Plains and Great Lakes region behind it, however, developing another cold front off to our northwest. There remains some model discrepancy in when this second cold front would reach our area, but it looks to be around mid-late next week. This second cold front is expected to bring cooler, drier conditions in its wake- it's just a question of when it makes it here. Current forecast has these drier, cooler conditions returning Wed-Thu, but this timing could shift. Temperatures should be closer to normal for this time of year, peaking in the low 80s and dipping to the low- mid 60s after this second frontal passage. .MARINE... High pressure will keep light winds and low seas in place through Friday night. On Saturday, winds and seas will creep back up to cautionary, possibly advisory, levels again as a backdoor front slides into the area. Chances for showers and slight chances for thunderstorms will accompany this front. Rip Currents/Surf: High risk of rip currents for the northeast Florida beaches today as a long period easterly ocean swell persists. Moderate risk of rip currents for the southeast Georgia beaches today. Coastal Flood: A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect today for the areas along the Atlantic Coast, Intracoastal Waterways (ICWW) and St. Johns River Basin for water levels reaching "Action" stage at high tide. A couple areas will continue to get near Minor Flood Stage at high tide. .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will continue to dominate through tomorrow night, keeping the area hot and dry. RH values are dipping to 35-40% over inland SE GA and the Suwanee Valley this afternoon and are expected to again tomorrow afternoon. High dispersion indices will accompany these low RH values this afternoon, but are expected to be slightly lower on Friday. This weekend, a backdoor cold front will push south into the area, bringing an increase in winds and possibly dispersion indices again. .HYDROLOGY... Mostly dry conditions, with only scattered to isolated showers are expected for the next several days, with 5 day cumulative rainfall amounts of less than a half an inch. With above normal tides today, a few of our coastal gauges along the ICWW and St. Johns River basin could peak near minor flood stage at high tides. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 67 95 69 87 68 / 0 0 0 50 40 SSI 72 88 74 84 75 / 0 0 10 70 60 JAX 67 92 70 88 72 / 0 0 10 50 60 SGJ 70 88 72 86 74 / 0 0 10 30 50 GNV 65 92 68 90 70 / 0 0 10 10 20 OCF 65 93 68 91 70 / 0 0 0 20 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&