192 FXUS65 KABQ 032350 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 550 PM MDT Thu Oct 3 2019 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE Widespread IFR/MVFR cigs with MVFR vis continues over much eastern NM this evening and will spread westward into central NM overnight. East canyon winds have already arrived to KABQ and KSAF and will continue through to 05Z-06Z with peak gusts to 30kts, and not expected to quite reach AWW criteria of 35kts at KABQ. Abundant moisture will fill in behind these e/se canyon winds with the corresponding drop in cigs 06Z-09Z at these central TAF locations. Coverage of shra and br will also spread westward overnight dropping vis mainly into the MVFR range with isold IFR mainly located along the east slopes of the central mtn chain and at KLVS. Only the far west is expected to remain VFR at KGUP and KFMN as the backdoor front will reach this far but will lose much of its punch by that point. Slow improvements are expected by Friday afternoon with VFR not expected to return until mid to late afternoon for central NM and not until late day or the evening for eastern NM. KROW will likely be the exception seeing clearing conditions by the afternoon. 24/RJH && .PREV DISCUSSION...235 PM MDT Thu Oct 3 2019... .SYNOPSIS... High pressure ridge over the southeast U.S. and upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will continue to pump moisture into NM tonight and Friday. At the surface, a back door cold front will spill into the Rio Grande Valley. The upper trough will swing through Friday night and Saturday bringing temporary dry weather this weekend. another back door front Sunday will bring some moisture into the area early next week. A weak trough will cross Tuesday. Another back door front and upper level trough is slated for Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Stream of moisture continues over our southeast third of the CWA. On the fence with the Flood Watch expiring at 600 pm MDT. Will leave it as is, but will monitor through the rest of afternoon. Focus for heavier rain will shift to the Rio Grande Valley to the Continental Divide later tonight and Friday. Could be a soaking rain in ABQ with amounts averaging one half to three quarters of an inch across the Metro. Rain does not look heavy enough to warrant a Flood or Flash Flood Watch. Drier air will move across NM from west to east Friday night into Saturday. Locations that receive decent rainfall Friday could see skies clearing then fog developing early Saturday morning. The weekend will be dry everywhere, despite a back door cold front racing south through the east Sunday. East Canyon winds will be likely Sunday evening, bringing in a fresh supply of low level moisture. Showers and storms will form Sunday night and Monday behind the front, focusing mostly in areas south of I-40. The models have backed way off on the POPs and QPF. We lowered our POPs as did some surrounding offices, with good agreement in the Grids. A short wave trough will bring additional precipitation to the area monday night into Tuesday night. Then dry weather for Wednesday and Thursday. CHJ && .FIRE WEATHER... There are no critical fire weather concerns through the forecast period. As deep moisture continues to stream northward into the state, numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms currently ongoing across eastern NM will shift into the RGV overnight and continue into Friday. Storm total amounts through Friday of 1 to 2" is expected across southeast and south central NM with totals near an inch across central NM. Drier, westerly flow will overtake the state Saturday and Sunday, leading to a quiet weekend. A couple of backdoor cold fronts will move through eastern NM this weekend, keeping temperatures near to slightly below normal, but no precipitation is expected. The next chance for precipitation potentially arrives late Monday and into Tuesday before drying out once again. 15 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for the following zones... NMZ535-536-538-540. && $$