843 
FXUS64 KSJT 032316
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
616 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Primarily VFR conditions expected through 09Z. 09Z-18Z, MVFR CIGs
likely gradually developing from north to south over the Big 
Country, with possible impacts to KABI, then conditions improving
back to VFR during the 18Z Today to 00Z Sat time-period. A cold
front gradually moving from south to north of the region will
bring a switch from south to southeasterly winds to north to 
northeasterly winds through Friday morning, mostly 10 KT or less.
Isolated shower/thunderstorms possible ahead of, along, and 
behind the front through 00Z Sat, but confidence in any terminals 
being impacted is low, except for higher confidence over the 
Heartland (including KBBD) where scattered showers/thunderstorms 
may develop after 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019/ 

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

As of mid afternoon, a weak cold front was just entering extreme 
northern portions of the Big Country. The front will sag slowly 
south across the area this evening and overnight, reaching the I-10 
corridor just before sunrise. The main challenge will be the extent 
of cloud cover and temperatures for Friday. The NAM continues to be 
the cooler model, with highs on Friday ranging from the upper 60s 
across the Big Country, to the lower 80s across far southern 
sections. The GFS is considerably warmer and has highs in the 80s 
areawide. Should see partly to mostly cloudy skies across the area 
during the morning hours, with partly cloudy skies by afternoon. 
Given how weak the front is, opted to go closer to the warm GFS MOS 
numbers, with highs ranging from near 80 across the Big Country, to 
the mid and upper 80s across southern sections.

Precipitation does not look that great but cannot rule our a few 
showers and a thunderstorm or two primarily across eastern sections 
overnight into Friday.  

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

The main highlight of the long term remains the possible cold
front for Sunday evening. This cold front looks to bring cooler
temperatures to the area along with a brief chance for rain.
Otherwise, expect hot and dry weather to continue until then.
Afterwards, once the cold front has passed, expect temperatures to
warm back up through mid week. Another front may be on the horizon
for Thursday October the 10th, so stay tuned for more details on 
that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 63  81  68  91 /  20  20   5   5 
San Angelo 	 65  86  67  94 /  20  10   5   0 
Junction 	 66  88  67  93 /  10  10   5   0 
Brownwood 	 65  84  67  93 /  30  20   5   0 
Sweetwater 	 62  84  67  89 /  20  10   5   0 
Ozona      	 63  87  64  91 /  20  10   5   0 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...24/41
AVIATION 00Z TAFS...SJH