000 FXUS65 KABQ 030901 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 301 AM MDT Thu Oct 3 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A backdoor cold front has started to make its way into northeastern New Mexico this morning, reaching the central mountain chain by mid- day. Winds will increase and showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase throughout the day and into Friday. Drier air arrives for the start of the weekend, before another backdoor cold front moves in Sunday evening. Temperatures will be below normal across the east for the early part of the weekend due to the fronts, while remaining near to above normal across the west. && .DISCUSSION... A backdoor cold front has begun to nose its way into northeastern New Mexico this morning, increasing low-level moisture in the area. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for portions of southeast and east central New Mexico, as showers and thunderstorms begin to develop over the Caprock region early this morning and continue to spread across the region into the afternoon. Rainfall amounts near 1 to 2 inches may exacerbate flooding concerns from antecedent conditions. The front will continue to make its way westward towards the central mountain chain by noon and will continue to make its way westward towards the central mountain chain by noon, increasing gap winds to 25 to 30 kts. By Friday, low-level moisture will have spread to a good portion of the state, sparking showers and thunderstorms from the Divide to the eastern slopes of central mountain chain. Some storms may briefly turn strong to severe, as the NAM and GFS have CAPE values nearing 800-1000 J/kg combined with southeast return flow. Precipitable water (PWAT) nears 1.2" for the ABQ metro area for Friday, possibly making it a top 5 PWAT value for October 5th. Moderate confidence that the ABQ foothills and Rio Rancho areas may easily see 0.5-1" of precipitation during Friday's events. The NAM is the outlier in this case - placing the band of heaviest precipitation further west from areas already affected by flooding. However, southeast and east central portions aren't out of the clear quite yet, and can expect some additional rainfall during this time. A downtrend in shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected from Friday night into the early part of the weekend, as drier air begins to overtake the state. A weak backdoor cold front will move across the eastern plains Saturday night, lowering overnight temperatures by a few degrees. The main, stronger backdoor cold front will move through Sunday, lowering temperatures across the area for Monday and creating breezy to locally windy conditions. Still, some uncertainty exists into the early and middle parts of next week. If the ECMWF is right, there could be a reinforcing shot of moisture, keeping some precipitation in the forecast for portions of eastern and central New Mexico. The latter part of next week looks to be a warmer, drier pattern, although it's still too early to tell. 31 && .FIRE WEATHER... A deep tap of subtropical moisture will stream northward through eastern NM today and interact with a moist back door cold front moving southward. Widespread showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will lead to precip amounts of 1 to 2" from Chaves to Curry and Roosevelt counties. The remainder of western NM will remain dry however humidity will trend much higher tonight as the cold front shifts west through the Rio Grande Valley. The next slug of heavy rain will move north across central NM tonight through Friday with widespread amounts of 0.50 to 1.50" in 24 hours. Much drier air will move into all of NM Saturday and Sunday as an upper level trough passes north of the region. The next round of showers and storms for central and eastern NM is possible Monday and Monday night, followed by a drying trend Tuesday through Thursday. There will be a couple wind shifts across eastern NM next week as periodic back door cold fronts slide into the area. Guyer && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE A back door cold front entering northeast NM tonight will set the stage for widespread low cigs, patchy fog, and areas of light rain through sunrise. Local IFR is likely to impact areas around KTCC and KLVS aft 09Z. Widespread RA with embedded TS will overspread all of eastern NM through Thursday with significant impacts to aviation through late Thursday. Meanwhile, the surface boundary will shift west into the RGV by mid day and lead to moderate gap winds around KABQ and KSAF. Precip will then spread north up the RGV aft sunset Thursday with widespread MVFR in RA Thursday night. Guyer && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 80 53 79 41 / 5 20 20 0 Dulce........................... 77 43 70 34 / 5 60 70 5 Cuba............................ 74 49 67 43 / 5 50 80 10 Gallup.......................... 77 46 77 39 / 5 20 20 0 El Morro........................ 75 46 70 39 / 20 50 50 5 Grants.......................... 76 51 75 40 / 10 60 50 5 Quemado......................... 77 50 72 43 / 20 40 30 5 Datil........................... 73 50 69 44 / 40 70 70 10 Glenwood........................ 82 58 76 53 / 20 60 50 10 Chama........................... 70 41 63 34 / 5 70 70 10 Los Alamos...................... 72 53 66 51 / 10 70 80 20 Pecos........................... 67 48 62 48 / 30 90 90 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 69 45 63 42 / 10 60 70 10 Red River....................... 60 39 56 38 / 10 60 70 10 Angel Fire...................... 62 40 61 42 / 20 60 80 10 Taos............................ 70 43 69 39 / 10 60 70 10 Mora............................ 66 43 65 42 / 20 80 80 20 Espanola........................ 77 52 70 48 / 10 70 80 20 Santa Fe........................ 69 49 65 48 / 20 80 90 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 72 47 69 44 / 20 80 80 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 75 58 71 56 / 20 80 80 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 78 57 73 54 / 20 80 80 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 80 55 75 52 / 20 80 80 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 78 57 73 54 / 10 80 80 20 Los Lunas....................... 80 55 73 51 / 20 80 80 20 Rio Rancho...................... 78 57 73 54 / 10 80 80 20 Socorro......................... 81 57 75 55 / 30 90 80 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 70 52 65 51 / 20 80 90 20 Tijeras......................... 73 53 68 51 / 20 90 90 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 71 48 69 46 / 30 90 90 20 Clines Corners.................. 61 47 64 48 / 40 90 90 40 Gran Quivira.................... 71 51 67 51 / 30 90 80 40 Carrizozo....................... 71 55 70 55 / 70 80 70 40 Ruidoso......................... 60 48 67 54 / 90 90 70 50 Capulin......................... 62 48 64 46 / 30 60 60 10 Raton........................... 65 49 67 45 / 20 50 60 10 Springer........................ 67 48 69 46 / 20 60 70 10 Las Vegas....................... 62 45 64 45 / 30 90 80 20 Clayton......................... 56 50 67 54 / 40 70 50 10 Roy............................. 60 51 64 51 / 40 90 80 20 Conchas......................... 65 53 71 57 / 60 90 70 30 Santa Rosa...................... 66 55 71 57 / 60 90 80 40 Tucumcari....................... 60 55 73 60 / 80 90 50 30 Clovis.......................... 61 55 73 56 / 90 70 30 20 Portales........................ 70 57 76 59 / 90 60 20 20 Fort Sumner..................... 67 57 72 58 / 80 90 50 40 Roswell......................... 72 61 77 61 / 80 70 30 20 Picacho......................... 68 56 71 57 / 80 80 50 40 Elk............................. 67 53 70 53 / 90 80 50 40 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from 6 AM MDT this morning through this afternoon for the following zones... NMZ535-536-538-540. && $$ 31