906 FXUS63 KICT 021916 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 216 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 Scattered to numerous clusters of thunderstorms are expected anytime after about 3-4 PM, generally along/southeast of a line extending from Anthony to Wichita to Cottonwood Falls, as a strong cold front moves southeast across the region. High precipitable water values in concert with a deep warm cloud depth and mid-level flow parallel to the frontal zone should support pockets of heavy rainfall and localized flooding, although modest instability along with a steadily-moving frontal zone should preclude a widespread flash flood threat. Therefore, the flash flood watch has been cancelled. The severe thunderstorm threat is on the marginal side, due to only modest instability and rather poor mid- level lapse rates. However, ample effective deep layer shear may support some marginal supercell structures, with a few of the strongest storms capable of dime to quarter size hail and 60 mph winds. Additionally, a few brief funnel clouds and/or a brief/weak tornado cannot be completely ruled out given decent low-level instability. The strong-severe threat should end by midnight. A lingering elevated frontal zone (850-700mb) aided by persistent lift underneath the right entrance region of a broad upper jet should support scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms expanding north across mainly south-central and southeast Kansas later tonight through at least Thursday morning. Limited instability will likely preclude strong/severe storms along with any appreciable heavy rain threat. The clouds and cooler airmass will support much cooler temperatures in the 60s all areas Thursday. Rain and embedded thunderstorm chances will increase again late Thursday night and persist into mainly Friday morning, mainly across central and northern KS, as isentropic ascent and moisture transport increase ahead of additional shortwave energy approaching from the west. Despite the warm advection, clouds and precipitation will likely keep Friday temperatures mostly in the 60s to low 70s. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 Another strong cold front is slated to blast southeast across the region late Friday night through Saturday, supported by good model consensus agreement. Strong frontal forcing in concert with decent shortwave energy approaching from the west should support scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms in vicinity of the cold front. Strong forcing coupled with modest shear/instability combination could support a few strong to marginally severe storms Saturday afternoon across southeast KS. However, a widespread or higher-end severe threat is not expected given poor lapse rates and only modest shear/instability. Dry, fall-like cooler weather is likely in wake of the cold front Saturday night through at least Tuesday, as cool high pressure settles south across Mid-America. Highs in the 60s-70s and lows in the 40s-50s appear likely. The GFS and Canadian models indicate a possible increase in rain/storm chances by Tuesday night- Wednesday along with warmer temperatures, as shortwave energy and an associating cold front approach from the west. ECMWF does not support this scenario just yet, so will stick with low PoPs at this juncture. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 Challenges: ceilings and precipitation A cold front continues to move southeast and is headed towards KICT. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible for most sites especially in the first six hours. Higher confidence exists in the presence of thunderstorm activity for KICT and KCNU which will be closer to the frontal boundary. TEMPO groups were used to convey the potential for TSRA. There wasn't enough confidence in coverage and timing to make this a prevailing element. This will certainly be monitored, and amendments will be made accordingly. KCNU's chances will be better after 0Z. There is potential for showers in the morning at KICT and KCNU. Thus vicinity wording was used. Ceilings are definitely a challenge through this TAF period as LIFR conditions have persisted in central Kansas through this morning. Areas of fog have been a player in this equation as well. Improvement is anticipated, but the question is when. The current expectation isn't until after 0Z when VFR conditions should return. This may need to be adjusted though depending on the trends. KICT and KCNU should drop to MVFR behind the front as occurred upstream with the moist air mass. A wind directional change will occur as this front moves southeast. Timing of the various elements is certainly in question thus changes may very well be made to the forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 53 65 54 69 / 40 50 30 40 Hutchinson 51 64 53 68 / 10 20 40 50 Newton 51 63 52 67 / 30 30 30 50 ElDorado 53 64 52 68 / 60 50 20 40 Winfield-KWLD 55 64 54 70 / 70 60 20 30 Russell 46 63 50 66 / 0 10 50 60 Great Bend 47 63 51 66 / 0 20 50 60 Salina 48 64 51 65 / 0 10 30 60 McPherson 50 64 52 65 / 10 20 30 60 Coffeyville 58 66 55 73 / 60 50 10 20 Chanute 55 64 55 71 / 70 40 10 20 Iola 54 64 54 70 / 70 40 10 10 Parsons-KPPF 57 65 55 71 / 60 40 10 20 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ADK LONG TERM...ADK AVIATION...VJP