450 FXUS64 KAMA 021747 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1247 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 .AVIATION...18Z TAFs... VFR conditions expected to be mostly predominant for the first half of the TAF. Tonight, cold front pushes south with stratus filling in behind it. Expect this stratus to eventually become IFR at all sites by Thursday morning. Showers are expected to develop across the Panhandles Thursday with the better chance across the southern half of the Texas Panhandle. Have thus gone with a prevailing mention at AMA and PROB30 groups at DHT and GUY. There is a very small chance of thunder with these showers, at this time too small to warrant a mention in the TAFs. Ferguson && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 332 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019/ SHORT TERM...Today through Tonight... A southwesterly flow aloft will continue today and tonight across the Panhandles. Convection chances diminish somewhat today with the best chances shifting eastward across the southeastern half of the forecast area. A cold front moving southward into the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandles this morning will track slowly south into the eastern and southern Panhandles later today. The frontal boundary is then expected to shift near the Red River Valley this evening and tonight back into eastern New Mexico. Chances for convection are then expected to increase this evening and tonight mainly over the eastern and southern portions of the Texas Panhandle in the vicinity of the frontal boundary. Some of the rain could be heavy with the possibility for localized flooding concerns. Highs today should rise into the upper 70s and 80s ahead of the cold front and provided some clearing occurs this afternoon allowing for afternoon heating. Diurnal heating will also allow for destabilization and a few storms could become strong to severe later today and this evening mainly over the eastern Texas Panhandle and possibly including portions of the southern Texas Panhandle. Schneider LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday... Southwest flow aloft continues through at least Friday as mid- level ridge remains over southeast CONUS while next trof comes ashore along the Pacific northwest and crosses the Rockies. Tropical feed of moisture will be sustained with more rain expected, especially Thursday and Thursday night. Extensive cloud cover and upslope flow in post-frontal environment on Thursday will hold max temperatures in the upper- 50s to mid-60s. On Friday, rain chances continue across mainly the northwest half of the Combined Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles where a series of upper-level disturbances will pass in stronger flow. Loss of upslope flow and decreasing cloud cover expected to allow Friday highs to be mainly in the mid-70s. On Saturday, the flow aloft begins transitioning from zonal to northwest, with another cold front pushing through the forecast area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday will continue in eastern and south-central sections where moisture will linger and temperatures will rise into the upper-70s to mid-80s prior to the frontal passage. Residual moisture in the southeast Texas Panhandle may support showers and thunderstorms on Sunday as additional disturbances pass in northwest flow above region of isentropic upglide. A final shortwave trof Sunday night may provide support for light showers and a few thunderstorms area- wide. Models in poor agreement regarding flow aloft and surface features Monday and Tuesday. Will follow consensus of dry and mild for Monday through Tuesday. Cockrell && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 9/77