433 FXUS64 KJAN 012346 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 646 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019 .UPDATE... Updated for 00Z aviation discussion && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF discussion: VFR conditions and light wind will prevail through the forecast period. The exception could be a brief period of early morning BR/FG at some sites. /EC/ && .DISCUSSION... Rest of this afternoon through Wednesday: Temperatures this afternoon have tied or eclipsed record highs at several locations so far. Some locations have even tied or broken their all-time October high temperatures with temperatures nearing 100 degrees. Temperatures will begin to fall this evening and tonight under clear skies. Temperatures will radiate down into the upper 60s in some locations, resulting in a 30+ degree diurnal curve at a few sites. Not much change in the weather is expected for tomorrow as the ridge remains parked over the region. Some all-time October highs that were set today could fall tomorrow as temperatures rise into the upper 90's to near 100 again throughout most of the region. /JPM3/ Wednesday night through early next week (Monday): The strong ridge of high pressure that has brought such record dry & warm September into early October will finally lose it's grip on our region. The 592-593DM mid-level ridge axis will be somewhat flattening over the Appalachians, leading to well above normal heat & humidity, with some potential record heat. It will be slightly less oppressive but still very anomalous & unseasonable, with highs reaching the mid-upper 90s across the area. Model guidance show a weak shortwave moving through the southern periphery of the ridge will move over the northern Gulf, leading to some moisture transport & better moisture aloft. This will help spark some isolated showers & storms both Thursday & Friday in the south-southwest. Friday & into Saturday, model consensus brings a weak dry front, leading to somewhat cooler temperatures aloft & slightly less oppressive heat. This could also help some convergence for some showers again in the same areas but moisture is somewhat limited in the north. Through the weekend & early next week, a final gasp of "summerlike" oppressive warmth looks to come to an end. If there is a good drop in moisture & in dewpoints into the low-upper 50s, lows could radiate even lower into the 60s for Saturday morning. The GFS doesn't really pick up on this boundary & for now, will hold off going too low on dewpoints, but did trend towards cooler raw guidance. Highs will remain well above normals & couldn't rule out a few record highs with the grip maintaining through Sunday. In addition, with such dry dewpoints & drop in humidity, fire danger could increase as well. With recent increasing fuels & burn bans, this will be something to monitor, especially if winds can increase. As a strong trough & surface low digs through central Canada, this will drive the first fall cold front with much drier & cooler air down towards the region. Increasing moisture & rain & some storm chances will move across the area Sunday across the east & best chances across the area through Monday. There is some juxtaposition of some weak shear & buoyancy, so will be something to watch. However, with such a recent drought & broad circulation in the Gulf, moisture may be somewhat more limited than guidance indicates. In the wake of the front Monday & into Tuesday of next week, PWs will fall in less than half an inch & dewpoints into the upper 40s to low 50s. Confidence remains that early next week a much more seasonable, fall temperatures with highs in the low-mid 80s & lows in the mid- upper 50s are possible. Lastly, with a strong pressure gradient, gusty winds & drop in humidity, fire danger looks to really spike up into early next week. This will likely be something warranted && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 71 96 72 95 / 1 4 0 11 Meridian 70 98 72 97 / 0 6 0 5 Vicksburg 71 98 72 97 / 1 8 1 13 Hattiesburg 70 94 70 94 / 3 12 1 11 Natchez 70 95 71 95 / 0 9 1 19 Greenville 71 97 73 97 / 0 2 0 5 Greenwood 71 97 72 96 / 0 2 0 3 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$