738 FXUS61 KRLX 010701 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 301 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably warm with small chances for showers and storms in the mountains the next several days. Strong cold front Thursday night. Much cooler Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 255 AM Tuesday... Upper ridge builds in, and the heat continues. Leaving in POPs over the mountains consistent with the previous forecast and the neighboring CWAs in low level southerly flow and an axis of CAPE. Will be a struggle to get enough moisture depth, and expect the coverage of any activity to be isolated for the most part. If enough moisture should arise, thunder is possible in this scenario. Otherwise, lowlands remain hot, mountains a bit cooler, and dry weather outside of the aforementioned mountains convection keeps a tight grip on the region. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 AM Tuesday... Will start to see some flattening of the ridge in response to upper level low emerging from the PacNW Wednesday and Thursday. Despite some suppression of H500 heights think day time high records will likely be challenged both days with highs in the lowlands approaching the mid 90s - just over 20 degrees above normal for this time of year. Little chance of rain Wednesday, but a few thunderstorms possible Thursday across northern SE Ohio and northern WV with a mid-level disturbance crossing a stalled frontal boundary sagging into southern PA. Strong cold front sweeps through Thursday night with little, if any additional precipitation finally putting an end to the nearly endless fall heat. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 245 AM Tuesday... Will finally actually feel like Fall Friday with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s, slightly BELOW normal values for the first week of October. Overnight lows will largely be in the low 40s, but could see some values dipping down toward freezing in the more protected mountain valleys by daybreak Saturday. Largely pleasant day Saturday with transient ridging passing through. Increasing southwesterly flow Sunday will begin to usher in low level moisture ahead of a stronger system Monday which may finally bring some much needed widespread precipitation. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 120 AM Tuesday... Fog largely relegated to the mountain valleys through 13Z and EKN, but some MVFR BR possible at CKB. FEW-SCT cumulus possible in the lowland terminals Tuesday, more coverage over the mountains with an isolated shower/storm possible. Low level winds pick up Tuesday night, inhibiting fog formation. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog coverage overnight may be worse than currently forecast at CKB/PKB. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 10/01/19 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M L L M H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR river valley fog possible each morning through Thursday. Strong cold front Thursday night may be followed by IFR stratus and fog early Friday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30/MEK NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...26