477 FXUS62 KMFL 010602 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 202 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2019 .AVIATION... E-NE winds mainly 060 degrees at 8-12 knots until about 14z, then increasing to 13-16 knots with frequent gusts to around 25 knots through 00z. VFR conditions to prevail. East coast terminals: occasional ceilings in the 025-030 range as a few SHRA move onshore in the 10z-14z range, then possibly more widespread ceilings 040-060 after 18z. Gulf coast: occasional ceilings 035-040 from 14z-18z, and again after 21z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 810 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019/ AVIATION... VFR prevails tonight, except for possible brief MVFR cigs under passing showers. Breezy and gusty NE to ENE winds continue tonight and tomorrow. Additional periods of MVFR cigs are possible again Tuesday late morning and in the afternoon with passing showers. UPDATE... Isolated and shallow fast moving rain showers continue to move WSW with the mean steering flow this evening. A thunderstorm also occurred over Palm Beach County earlier this evening. Expect these showers to diminish as the night goes on with the loss of daytime heating. Highest POPs are over the east coast for overnight as a stray Atlantic shower moving onshore cannot be ruled out. Updated the POPs and wind speeds to account for current trends, but otherwise, no major chances to the forecast are in store. PREV DISCUSSION... /FROM 416 PM EDT TODAY/ DISCUSSION... Today through Wednesday... South Florida remains under control of expansive deep layer ridging yet again today. With a tightening pressure gradient across the area, gusty winds have been felt throughout the course of the day and look to continue through Wednesday, especially for coastal locations. MFL's 30/12Z sounding detected a PW of 1.63 inches which is sufficient enough for some isolated low-topped showers pushing across the region for the rest of today. While most activity is expected to be light and brief, some showers may bring swift heavy downpours. Overnight, highest chances for showers will be across the Atlantic waters and east coast metro, but again, showers will be quick moving with some localized gusts. Seasonal temperatures are in store, with highs in the mid to upper 80s along the east coast and near 90 for the west coast. Thursday through Early Next Week... By Thursday, the upper-level ridge driving our current weather pattern looks to elongate and retract northwards as troughing aloft advances eastward towards the SE CONUS. A corresponding period of focused deep moisture advection into our area is anticipated through at least Sunday. This should result in slightly cooler temperatures, greater cloud cover, and increased shower/thunderstorm chances through the weekend, especially during the afternoon hours. A bit of uncertainty lies in the forecast thereafter as the ECMWF and GFS have a bit of a disunity handling a dynamic mid-latitude system and associated frontal boundary. One of two things could happen... 1. A brief drying trend will occur early next week due to a dry push from the northeast and the frontal boundary staying to the north of the area (GFS) or.. 2. A continuation in rain chances as the frontal boundary associated with the aforementioned system drapes down across the Lake Okeechobee region (ECMWF). With that in mind, the end of the forecast period is very uncertain and will need to be monitored as the week progresses. Took a blend of the two models and kept POPs near 50% to 60% for the time being. MARINE... A tight pressure gradient will bring gusty conditions with a fresh to strong northeast breeze to the Atlantic waters through the remainder of today into the Tuesday evening hours. The wind is forecast to become more easterly by late Tuesday into Wednesday and continue to be gusty for a good part of the week. The northerly component during this time frame will oppose the Gulf Stream, which will build seas in the Atlantic, especially in the Gulf stream to around 6 feet. With the breezy conditions, seas are not forecast to subside much until after the middle of the week. By the middle of the week, the atmosphere will moisten up and showers and thunderstorms will be possible again and are in the forecast through the end of the weekend. Due to the breezy conditions, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Atlantic waters through late Tuesday night. Depending on the wind, there is a chance it may need to be extended, however, please note that even if the SCA is not extended, small craft should exercise caution in the Atlantic waters through most of the week. AVIATION... Generally VFR and gusty northeasterly to east-northeasterly winds through a good portion of the period. Some bouts of MVFR are possible with fast-moving showers entering from the Atlantic. Additional showers could develop over the interior and push towards APF as well. BEACH FORECAST... A high risk for rip currents will exist for the Atlantic beaches through at least late Tuesday night due to strong onshore winds. This may need to be extended, especially as an enhanced risk looks to stick around for most of the work week. Minor coastal flooding remains possible during high tide cycles due to the new moon and increasing E-NE winds. A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect through Tuesday afternoon due to this threat, however, the gusty E-NE winds may cause flooding associated with the high tides to continue for an additional cycle or two after Tuesday afternoon. This may cause the advisory to be extended past tomorrow afternoon. CLIMATE... A few of South Florida's Climate sites are on pace to break some September records... Warmest September on Record Site Current Average Record Average and Year Miami (MIA) 85.2F 84.8F in 2017 Naples (APF) 85.2F 84.5F in 1944 Driest September on Record Site Current Average Record and Year Naples (APF) 1.23 inches 3.22 inches in 2004 Palm Beach (PBI) 1.36 inches 1.77 inches in 1988 Fort Lauderdale (FLL) 1.33 inches 1.38 inches in 1988 More conclusive details to come in the coming days as September comes to a close and data is evaluated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... West Palm Beach 85 76 86 75 / 30 30 30 30 Fort Lauderdale 85 78 86 78 / 30 30 40 40 Miami 87 77 86 77 / 30 30 40 40 Naples 90 73 89 73 / 20 10 30 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ168-172-173. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ168- 172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ630-650-651- 670-671. GM...None. && AVIATION...59/Molleda