706 FXUS63 KIND 300208 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1008 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 240 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 A warm front could bring some rain to parts of central Indiana tonight, then dry but hot conditions will prevail through Tuesday. Another front will bring more rain chances to the area mid-week, followed by much colder and more seasonable temperatures. More rain is possible next Sunday with another front. && .NEAR TERM...(Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight) Issued at 240 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Waves of scattered showers continue to move across central Indiana this afternoon, with a warm front across the central forecast area. Regional radar shows more convection across Illinois near the front, along with isolated showers south of the front. The warm front will shift north tonight as an upper high to the south of the area increases its influence. Some showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible along and north of the front. Will have some low PoPs for this. (Before the start of the Tonight period, 00Z, will have some PoPs most areas to account for ongoing convection). Chances for rain will diminish from south to north as the front moves north. Warm and humid conditions will continue, and the blend's temperatures look reasonable for lows. && .SHORT TERM...(Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 240 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Models are close enough that the National Blend of Models initialization was accepted for most items. The upper high will control the weather Monday through Tuesday night. This will provide dry conditions and potentially record breaking heat. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. The upper high will begin to break down in our area on Wednesday, and this will allow a front to sneak toward the area. This will bring some low chance PoPs to northern areas. Temperatures will still be hot, but a few degrees cooler than previous days. High temperature records for Indianapolis... Sep 30, 89 degrees, 1971 Oct 1, 89 degrees, 1897 Oct 2, 89 degrees, 1954 All of October, 91 degrees, 2007 && .LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/... Issued at 248 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 The late season heat will be coming to an end at the beginning of the extended as the strong upper ridge centered over the eastern part of the country is suppressed with an upper low tracking from the northern Plains into the upper Great Lakes. This will enable a cold front to sweep through the Ohio Valley late Wednesday night and Thursday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. While widespread needed rainfall is not expected with the front...its passage will finally introduce Fall to the Hoosier state as a much cooler airmass overspreads the region for late week into next weekend. Highs ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s will be common Friday through Sunday with the coldest morning lows since the Spring...as low as the lower 40s in some of the typical cool spots Saturday morning. Dry weather is expected late Thursday through the first half of the weekend...with the potential for just a few showers Sunday as a weak front approaches. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 30/03Z TAF Update/... Issued at 1006 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Update... No changes. Previous Discussion... Conditions will predominantly be VFR for the TAF period. However, thunderstorms will impact KLAF over the next several hours causing quick deterioration to MVFR or worse. Otherwise, VFR will prevail after that. Meanwhile, winds will generally be light and variable. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...50 NEAR TERM...50 SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....Ryan AVIATION...TDUD