312 
FXUS63 KEAX 292252
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
552 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 318 PM CDT SUN SEP 29 2019

Widespread convection this morning has finally shifted mostly north 
of the Iowa border, leaving in its wake 0.5-3 inches across much of 
northern Missouri. A well-defined outflow boundary is nearly 
stationary near Highway 34, with temperatures on the north side 
running in the 70s - with middle 80s elsewhere. Visible satellite 
imagery has shown a couple isolated updrafts trying to grow on the 
remnant boundary and points south. Models have not handled this
short-term period well. There appears to be some potential for one
last round for convection this afternoon, with an overall drying trend
by this evening. Lows tonight will fall into the lower 70s, and 
while there may be some patchy ground fog in areas that received 
rain today, breezy southerly winds should help mitigate more 
widespread development. A relatively quiet weather day is expected
on Monday as the area will remain in between a large upper trough
over the Intermountain West and high pressure over the Lower 
Mississippi Valley. Highs will warm into the middle 80s.

The upper trough will gradually shift east with flow paralleling a 
slow-moving frontal boundary Tuesday into Wednesday. Widespread 
showers and thunderstorms are expected, and with PWs AOA 2 inches in 
advance of the front, moderate to heavy rainfall is once again 
anticipated. With the heavy rainfall expected over already near-
saturated soils, the potential for localized flash flooding is a 
reasonable possibility in areas with the most robust convection. 
Rainfall totals Tuesday into Wednesday night on the order of 1-3 
inches are expected with locally higher amounts, which will further 
exacerbate ongoing/expected river flooding. Drier weather returns as 
high pressure moves into the region Thursday into Friday, along with 
much cooler temperatures with highs in the 60s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at  546 PM CDT SUN SEP 29 2019

VFR conditions with decreasing clouds tonight. LLWS possible
tonight as low level jet gets cranking around midnight. Gusty
winds to 25 knots or so tomorrow as pressure gradient tightens up
a bit. Otherwise no precipitation expected next 24 hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>008-
     011>017.

&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Christensen