305 FXUS63 KEAX 291732 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1232 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 .Discussion... Issued at 328 AM CDT SUN SEP 29 2019 Shower activity has undergone a bit of an uptick through the overnight period after the gradual decrease in coverage through the late evening and early overnight. This is likely in response to some good warm air advection as the low level southerly flow begins its return to the area for Sunday. These showers this morning are likely elevated given the cool boundary layer conditions in the vicinity of these showers. Short range/hi-res models have struggled to resolve this activity, but the mechanism for these showers is rather well resolved. Expect increase in coverage to continue through the morning, especially across far northern Missouri, southward toward the I-70 corridor. Severe storms are not likely with this activity, but with MUCAPE values approaching 1000 to 2000 J/kg there will be an outside chance at some larger hail stones and gusty winds at the surface. Also given the several day rain event area soils are rather saturated, so will continue to have some concern for isolated minor flash flooding across areas north of I-70 this morning and afternoon. River/creek/stream flooding will also likely be affected by this morning and afternoon rain, so will continue to monitor those local water ways. This activity is expected to wane through the early afternoon, leaving the evening and overnight period dry. Monday and most of Tuesday will likely be dry as the deep warm sector builds back in. Expect daytime highs on both days to be in the middle 80s, again, well above normal for this time of year. The next appreciable chance for rain comes Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as another cold frontal passage brings a trigger for more deep convection and heavy rain. Right now details regarding time/location/severity are still elusive, but once again it's looking like at least some areas in NE KS and/or NW MO will see more heavy rain, which will continue to aggravate the ongoing flooding within the local streams. This cold front will usher in a rather formidable surface ridge for the middle to latter part of next week, and perhaps into the weekend. This surface ridge, consisting of much cooler and drier air will bring the much need respite from the summer-like temperatures we have endured through September. Expect highs on Thursday through Saturday to generally be in the 60s to 70s area- wide with mostly dry conditions. More rain will be possible for the second half of next weekend, but will hold off on more details regarding that event until we get a bit closer in time. && .Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon) Issued at 1226 PM CDT SUN SEP 29 2019 VFR generally expected with a occasional scattered MVFR-cumulus possible this afternoon and evening. STJ conditions will improve as outflow boundary gradually mixes and shifts north later this afternoon. May see a window for LLWS overnight. Precipitation chances look low for terminal space. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>008- 011>017. && $$ Discussion...Leighton Aviation...Blair