097 
FXUS65 KFGZ 272139
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
239 PM MST Fri Sep 27 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible in the White Mountain region this evening. Strong 
southwest wind gusts winds are expected to develop this weekend 
and continue into early next week. The strongest winds will be on
Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Friday has been a very mild and pleasant day across 
northern Arizona. A few scattered showers and storms have
developed this afternoon around the White Mountain region. 
Otherwise, just a few clouds along the high terrain with highs in
the mid to upper 60s with mid 80s across the lower elevation 
valleys. The low that brought us the precipitation the past 24-48
hours has begun to shift eastward. This will continue with the low
exiting the state overnight.

For the weekend, expect increasing southwest winds as the next
trough of low pressure digs in across the Pacific Northwest.
Gradients will increase across our area brining strong southwest
winds each afternoon. Winds will stay strong overnight Saturday
before the strongest winds on Sunday afternoon with gusts 40-45 
mph possible in the afternoon. A chance of showers is still being 
held onto by the ECMWF on Sunday. Taking a look at the ensemble 
members there is good agreement on light precipitation. However, 
other models are not so sold on the idea. GEFs ensemble does have 
a few members with light precipitation. The deterministic GFS is 
entirely dry on Sunday except from some light accumulation on the 
Kaibab Plateau. So, confidence is low that anything will 
materialize at this point. Have kept in low low chances at this 
time for showers and storms mainly along the high terrain on 
Sunday. 

Gusty southwest winds will remain possible each afternoon through
Tuesday before gradients lighten. The overall upper air pattern
stays active through the end of the forecast period. Another
chance at showers may be possible by the end of the week. At this
time, confidence is low. Stay tuned! 

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect VFR conditions over the 
next 24 hours. Light winds overnight will become south to southwest 
at 15-25 kt gusting to 35 kt by Saturday afternoon. Aviation 
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Look for strengthening winds over the weekend as a 
low pressure system plunges across the western States. Saturday 
afternoon and night will see south to southwest winds at 15 to 25 
mph gusting to 35 mph increasing to 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 
mph during the day Sunday. Otherwise, generally dry with a slight 
chance of a shower or thunderstorm over the western Mogollon Rim.

Monday through Wednesday...The western states low will be slow to 
exit the area with windy conditions continuing on Monday and Tuesday 
becoming lighter by Wednesday. Otherwise, dry with mild temperatures.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...ET
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff