855 FXUS63 KICT 270841 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 341 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019 Early morning water vapor imagery shows an upper level disturbance over the Southwest U.S. while conditions were mostly quiet over the central and southern Plains. Surface analysis reveals a cold front that extends from a surface low in northern Minnesota across the northern Plains into western Nebraska. It will be this front that will initially result in a more active weather pattern across central, south central, and southeast Kansas beginning this afternoon and evening and lasting over the next several days. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019 A few notable changes were made to today's forecast with this issuance, namely (1) the timing of the front today, (2) temperatures for today as a result of the front's position, and (3) the extent of convective activity later this evening. Latest model guidance suggests that the aforementioned cold front will progress from north to south across the forecast area this morning and early afternoon and then stall across the region. Temperatures to the north of the boundary may be limited, and as a result confidence in this afternoon's highs in central Kansas remains quite low, with model guidance ranging anywhere from the upper 60s to mid 80s for Barton County by mid to late afternoon. However, did try to delineate a sharper gradient in temperature evolution today with this forecast issuance. Focus later this afternoon and evening will then turn to chances for thunderstorms. As the surface boundary remains draped across roughly the I-35 corridor this evening, increasing moisture transport and convergence along the boundary should be enough to initiate a few storms. Coverage remains a big question at this point, however, given that most models do show a slot of drier air working into the southwest portions of the forecast area at 850mb that could limit the southwest extent of convective activity in south central Kansas. Fairly strong capping will be in place as well, and overcoming the cap that far south will be a challenge. Thus, continue to think that the *best* chance to see more widespread activity will be in eastern and especially northeastern Kansas. However, with that said, within the warm sector very large amounts of buoyancy with MLCAPE of 3000+ J/kg will be present in concert with bulk shear of 40+kts and impressive storm relative helicity of up to about 300m2/s2. These environmental parameters will be most favorable along the Flint Hills area and into southeast Kansas. So, storms that are able to develop within this environment will certainly have the potential to be strong and/or severe with all facets of severe weather possible including large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornados. During the day on Saturday, expecting the front to lift back north as a warm front, which will continue chances for showers and storms. Latest model guidance was a bit slower with this northward push, however, so tweaked temperatures on Saturday down in most places to account for this trend. Chances for strong and severe storms will return by Saturday afternoon, with less CAPE than is expected today but higher effective bulk shear. Additionally, continued southerly flow and rising precipitable water values are forecast during the afternoon and evening on Saturday into the vicinity of up to 2.0 inches. High rainfall rates are possible in any shower and storm activity, and based on updated guidance from the WPC and collaboration, have increased QPF a bit for Saturday afternoon/early evening. Shower/storm chances look to linger into at least Sunday morning before finally waning again, at least for a couple of days, by late Sunday. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019 Little change was made to the long term forecast with this issuance, as models continue to be in fairly good agreement that after a dry start to the work week, rich Gulf moisture will return to the area Tuesday-Thursday of next week. As previous discussions have mentioned, precipitable water values will be well above normal for the time of year. This, along with the stream of rich moisture, have the potential to result in a prolonged period of heavy rainfall and increasing flooding concerns during the middle of the week next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1132 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Warm advection/moisture advection has led to MVFR and some IFR cigs racing to the north across portions of central KS late this evening. Most of the MVFR and even some IFR cigs will be contained to areas along and NW of a KHUT to KSLN line, affecting the KHUT/KRSL/KSLN and KGBD taf sites. Could see some brief periods of IFR cigs near KGBD as some stratus builddown occurs, so will go with a tempo group for this chance. Think most of the MVFR cigs in central KS will mix out by Fri morning. A cold front will begin to push into northern KS for Fri morning. As it moves south, winds will shift to the SW and eventually to the north for most of the central KS taf locations by around midday. As the front pushes southeast during the afternoon hours, convergence along the front during peak heating may lead to convection developing for areas east of the KS Turnpike. So will go with a VCTS for KCNU taf for Fri afternoon for this chance. Ketcham && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 92 64 83 69 / 20 50 50 30 Hutchinson 87 60 78 68 / 20 50 40 40 Newton 89 61 80 69 / 20 70 50 40 ElDorado 89 64 81 70 / 20 80 50 30 Winfield-KWLD 91 66 84 70 / 10 30 50 30 Russell 76 54 71 67 / 10 30 30 30 Great Bend 77 55 73 67 / 10 30 20 40 Salina 84 58 73 69 / 20 70 40 40 McPherson 86 58 76 68 / 20 50 40 40 Coffeyville 89 68 83 71 / 10 20 50 20 Chanute 88 67 81 70 / 20 50 50 20 Iola 88 66 81 70 / 10 60 50 30 Parsons-KPPF 88 68 82 70 / 10 30 50 20 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAV SHORT TERM...TAV LONG TERM...TAV AVIATION...Ketcham