608 FXUS61 KCLE 270836 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 436 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the Ohio Valley will continue eastward today to off the East Coast. A cold front will cross the Great Lakes region on Friday night into Saturday and stall over the Ohio Valley. High pressure will build into the eastern Great Lakes for Sunday, shifting southeast by Monday. The stalled front over the Ohio Valley will lift north as a warm front on Monday. High pressure strengthens over the southeast United States on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Friday will be a dry day for the forecast area as high pressure resides over the Ohio Valley this morning and continues wobbling eastward to the East Coast by this evening. Fairly dry air on the back of the high will keep the area mostly cloud-free and temperatures will rebound a bit with some light warm air advection to near 80 degrees in most locations. Shower and thunderstorm activity will pick up tonight into Saturday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The front will be losing steam as it reaches the forecast area as it will be far removed from the broader upper trough over Canada and begin interacting with a strengthening upper ridge over the southeast CONUS. However, there will be enough moisture and modest instability over the region to generate some showers and storms with the weak forcing and have slowly increasing PoPs in the forecast through the end of the period. The best chance for rain and perhaps some thunder will be NE OH and NW PA, where the diurnal timing of the front is more favorable on Saturday afternoon with better moisture pooling and ok instability. There is a marginal risk for severe weather in this region as any stronger storm may produce some high winds, as noted by high low level lapse rates and a slight "inverted-V" feel in forecast soundings over the region. With the slowing front, temperatures on Saturday will be a degree or two warmer than Friday in the lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A few light showers may linger into Saturday night as low level cold air advection continues. Large area of surface high pressure expands south out of Canada across the Eastern Great Lakes on Sunday before shifting towards New England on Monday. Temperatures on Sunday will be 5 or more degrees cooler across northern portions of the area with a lesser degree of cooling felt closer to Central Ohio. Skies will start the day mostly cloudy with the 925mb frontal boundary draped overhead. As low clouds start to scatter out we will see varying degrees of mid and high level cloud through the day. On Monday the upper level ridge axis expands overhead while surface low pressure moves out of the Plains towards the Upper Midwest. This will lift a warm front north across the area with temperatures making a solid push back into the 80s, possibly approaching 90 degrees in NW Ohio. For now kept temperatures on Monday below record values at all sites except perhaps Mansfield where it will be close. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Tuesday is on track to be the hottest day of the week as the forecast area resides firmly in the warm sector. Aside from some cloud cover possibly spilling around the ridge during the first half of the day, expecting a mostly sunny day with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s area wide. Many sites will approach record high temperatures for the first day of October. See the climate section below for record values. Upper level ridge starts to break down during the mid-week period as energy rounds the ridge across the lower Great Lakes. Chances of thunderstorms are introduced across Lake Erie Tuesday night, expanding southward on Wednesday, with the cold front finally pushing south across the lake Wednesday night. Pops remain in the chance range with the frontal passage, mainly due to uncertainty in timing of the front, but otherwise chances of precipitation will be pretty good when it does come through. Highs on Thursday will feel dramatically different as temperatures drop by 12-15 degrees from Wednesday with clouds and showers. && .AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... High pressure enters the airspace for today and will bring VFR conditions through most of the TAF period. Clear skies are present over the region and some high clouds may enter the area this afternoon, but there should be no restrictions over the region. Winds will be light out of the south for most of the day with perhaps a gust late in the afternoon to 20 kts max. A cold front approaches from the northwest for Saturday and some rain may try to get into NW Ohio late in the TAF period. Have omitted from the TAFs for now, as confidence is not quite there for the timing at KTOL. .OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in isolated/scattered thunderstorms Saturday into Sunday. && .MARINE... Southerly winds will be breezy on Lake Erie today, then ramp up to 15 to 25 knots tonight as low pressure passes north of the lake. Portions of the lake will be near Small Craft conditions at times, mainly from midnight to 6 AM. Did not issue the Small Craft yet as it appears marginal at this time, with best chances for needing one in the nearshore waters off of Erie PA. A cold front will settle south across the lake on Saturday with winds shifting around to the northeast Saturday night. Conditions will approach Small Craft criteria again Saturday night into Sunday but again looks to remain just below criteria. Minor rises in water level on the western basin are also likely but expected to remain below flooding levels. A warm front will lift back north across the lake on Monday eventually followed by a stronger cold front on Wednesday night/Thursday. && .CLIMATE... Near record high temperatures are possible early next week. Here are the current records for climate locations in northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania for Monday, 9/30/19 and Tuesday, 10/1/19. 9/30/19(MON) 10/1/19(TUE) Climate Site Record Highs Record Highs CLE 86 (1881) 87 (1952) CAK 90 (1953) 89 (1927) ERI 86 (1881) 86 (1927) MFD 85 (1953) 87 (1937) TOL 85 (2002) 90 (1897) YNG 86 (1953) 85 (1952) && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic NEAR TERM...Sefcovic SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...KEC CLIMATE...