895 FXUS62 KMHX 261632 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1232 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure offshore and inland trough as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest today and stall over the region Friday. Another weak cold front will push through late this weekend followed by high pressure from the north early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 920 AM Thurs...Deck of low stratus pushing toward region from the W, however strong heating over the area shld cause it to lift and mix out shortly. Shld see enough sun for highs to reach around 90 inland leading to decent instab and threat of isold shra/tsra. Prev Disc...High pressure extending over eastern NC, while an inland trough and zonal flow aloft. A weak cold front will approach the area from the northwest today, which will result an increase SW wind and moisture. Despite the lack of forcing, the latest CAMS continue to suggest isolated showers for this afternoon; therefore continued the mention of 20% PoPs, even though think it will be mostly dry. With plenty of sunshine, the local low level thickness supports highs reaching to around 90 degrees inland and low/mid 80s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... As of 330 AM Thurs...The weak cold front will begin to traverse across eastern NC late tonight and stall just south of the area by Friday morning. Expect an increase of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front through the overnight hours. Overnight lows will be slightly mild due to cloud cover and SW flow, expect lows in the low 70s across the area. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 340 AM Thursday...The combination of a stalled weak boundary near or just south of the CWA and some mid-level shortwave energy will lead to small chances of rain Friday and Saturday, but the overall pattern will be warm and dry with temperatures well above normal. Highs both Friday and Saturday will be in the mid/upper 80s with some lower 80s near the coast. An approaching back door front will be the forcing mechanism for a slightly better chance of showers later Sunday into Monday. Beyond Monday into late next week, a strong mid-level ridge will build over the eastern portion of the country producing dry weather and continued very warm temperatures with highs well into the 80s and lows mid/upper 60s inland and 70s beaches. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term /through Friday/... As of 1230 PM Thurs...Large SCU field is finally lifting to VFR across the region. Expect sct to bkn CU in VFR range rest of the day. VFR will cont thru the evening then late tonight as weak front crosses could see some sub VFR in patchy fog/st develop...best signal for this is across srn tier. On Fri expect any sub VFR to grad lift with VFR expected later in morn thru aftn. Some wdly sct shra/tsra poss srn tier Fri but at this point coverage looks limited. Long Term /Friday night through Monday/... As of 345 AM Thursday...VFR conditions should be the dominant conditions through much of the extended period. Low rain chances continue each day, with the best chance Sunday and Monday along and ahead of a weak back door cold front. Any reductions in ceilings and vsby with this precipitation should be minimal. As usual, could see patchy shallow ground fog or stratus during the early morning hours each day with light to calm winds. && .MARINE... Short Term /Today and Tonight/... As of 920 AM Thurs...Fcst on track with grad increasing SW flow today ahead of weak cold front. Prev disc...The latest buoy observations are showing southerly flow 10 knots or less and seas 2-4 ft. High pressure will dominate over the waters today with a cold front approaching the area from the northwest. The gradient will increase SW winds this afternoon 15-20 knots with seas 3-4 ft with possible 5 footers. The cold front will begin to cross the waters late tonight with winds becoming NE 10-15 over the northern waters and NW to N 5-10 knots south by Friday morning. Long Term /Fri through Mon/... As of 350 AM Thursday...With a boundary sinking south of the area, N/NE winds are expected Friday into Saturday before veering to SE Saturday night. Another back door front will bring a return of NE winds Sunday into Monday. Seas should generally be 2-3 feet Friday and Saturday, increasing to 3-5 feet by Sunday. Long period swell energy from multiple distant tropical systems returns by Monday with seas building to as high as 6-7 feet and SCA conditions becoming likely. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RF/BM SHORT TERM...BM LONG TERM...CTC AVIATION...RF/CTC MARINE...RF/CTC/BM