727 FXUS61 KCLE 260828 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 428 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move east of the area today. High pressure will build east across the region Friday. Another cold front will move east across the area Saturday morning. High pressure will move east across the northern Great lakes extending a ridge south into the area Saturday and Saturday night. A warm front will lift north across the region Sunday. A cold front will move southeast across Lake Erie where it will become nearly stationary by Wednesday morning. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front lying across the area at this time will continue to push east of the area this morning. Some clouds behind the front will stream into the region today. There is an outside chance for a shower or two over northwest Pennsylvania today but mainly this morning. Cold air advection in the wake of the cold front will keep temperatures in the lower to middle 70s for highs today. An upper level trough will swing east of the area tonight allowing a nearly zonal flow pattern to shape up through the night tonight. The upper level ridge and resultant surface high pressure that will move east across the region will keep fair weather in place tonight. As the upper level ridge moves east of the area and we arrive to the west side of the surface high, we should start to see a return to warm air advection into the local area Friday. Surface low pressure will move rapidly northeast with an upper level shortwave trough and force a cold front east toward the area. There is the possibility that a brief shower/thunderstorm could slide into the western portions of the forecast area Friday night afternoon. Will mention a slight chance at least in the west. Otherwise, warm air advection continues ahead of the cold front. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will wobble east of the area on Friday night as a cold front approaches from the northwest for Saturday. The area will be in a battle of two competing dynamical systems with this front as an upper ridge over the southeastern CONUS is strengthening while a broader trough over Canada ejects a shortwave over the Great Lakes region in support of this cold front. The result will be a cold front that will lose steam as it reaches the forecast area on Saturday afternoon. The front will be far removed from the better forcing in Canada and will maintain just a mid range PoP at a maximum. The cold front will continue south Saturday night as high pressure builds from the north for Sunday. Some cooler air will be present for Sunday, although this will be temperatures still about 5 to 8 degrees above normal for the final days of September. High pressure should keep the area dry and the aforementioned southeast upper ridge will begin expanding northward. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The long term forecast period continues to appear more like early August than early October over the eastern Great Lakes region. An upper ridge will expand northward from the southeast United States and advect much warmer air into the region with some of the extended guidance showing 20 degrees Celsius at 850 mb by Tuesday afternoon, which would translate to the upper 80s to near 90 degrees at the surface. The big question will be if some waves of energy attempt to overtop this ridge and bring rain chances into the Great Lakes region. Believe that this will probably happen to some extent, but the best forcing appears north of our forecast area and will have low PoPs through the period. The ridge begins to flatten by Wednesday and will allow for a cold front to attempt to enter the region and have higher PoPs going into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... Cold front is currently pushing east out of southeast lower Michigan, across northwest Ohio into the Toledo and Findlay areas. The front will bring a wind shift with it to more of a westerly direction. VFR clouds will move in behind the front this morning. Expecting some lingering clouds to prevail through the morning hours with clearing taking place in the afternoon from west to east. There is a possibility for a very widely scattered shower at Erie with the frontal passage. Otherwise, it should be dry there. Winds diminish later tonight. .OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in showers Saturday into Sunday and diminishing threat Monday morning. && .MARINE... A cold front has reached the western basin of Lake Erie this morning and will continue east over the next several hours. Behind the front, winds are picking up out of the west to 15 knots and will reach closer to 20 knots this afternoon. Will continue the Small Craft Advisory for the eastern half of the lake and will hoist the associated Beach Hazards Statement for the land areas for a high swimming risk. High pressure begins building in from the west tonight into Friday and will settle into the Ohio Valley. Winds will subside over the lakes and become somewhat light and variable for 24 hours. A cold front will approach from the northwest for Saturday, crossing the lake sometime midday. Southerly winds will increase over the lake Friday night into Saturday ahead of the front and quickly shift around to the northwest to north behind the front on Saturday. High pressure will begin building in from the north on Sunday and winds will shift more northeast to easterly. Waves will be on the increase Saturday night into the Sunday behind the cold front and with high pressure building into the area, perhaps close to small craft conditions in some areas. High pressure meanders east for early next week and winds will shift around to the south and offshore flow should diminish any nearshore wave threat. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for OHZ010>012- 089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ145>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lombardy NEAR TERM...Lombardy SHORT TERM...Sefcovic LONG TERM...Sefcovic AVIATION...Lombardy MARINE...Sefcovic