589 FXUS62 KILM 251345 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 945 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will remain well above normal through the period with little chance for rainfall. The tropics remain active but there is no immediate threat to the Carolinas. && .UPDATE... No significant changes this morning. Stationary surface front was analyzed across the southern CWA from near MYR to near Kingstree, with some stratus and fog burning off across Columbus, Robeson and Bladen counties. Hi-res guidance continues to highlight the I-95 corridor for isolated showers this afternoon. Twelve second 2-3 foot swell from Jerry will wane, but continue to produce a moderate threat of rip currents today. Winds across the coastal waters will remain 10 kt or less this morning, generally onshore but with some variability in vicinity of the front, but should come around to the southeast during the afternoon as the front washes out. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... A weak cold front slipped south across the area yesterday. This boundary will wash out today as high pressure moves off the North Carolina coast and southeast surface winds develop across the area. Shallow moisture already moving onshore will be supplemented with deepening moisture advecting in from the south and southwest. Weak 850 mb warm advection could help develop some scattered showers later today. High-res models show shallow convective showers developing from Marion to Whiteville and Elizabethtown, and this is where I'm placing a corridor of 20-30 percent PoPs this afternoon. No thunder is forecast as a subsidence inversion between 9-12kft should cap off the shower cells before they grow deep enough. Assuming there aren't too many clouds associated with the weak warm advection, highs should approach 90 in Florence and Darlington, but remain in the mid to upper 80s closer to the coast. We'll watch for potential low clouds or fog late tonight as clouds clear but low-level moisture remains in place. With the warm advection finished and 850 mb temps approaching +19C across the Pee Dee region Thursday, look for highs to soar into the mid 90s for Florence and Darlington. An unusually strong seabreeze for late September keeping the coast 5-8 degrees cooler. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The mid level pattern will be in transition from a zonal pattern initially to heights building in by Saturday morning. Yet another fast moving front will move across the area overnight Thursday into Friday morning and fade across the area later Friday into Saturday. With the front in the area and at least some mid level moisture available guidance has been ever so slightly increasing coverage the of showers. I did maintain the inherited slight chance pops but it is seemingly looking a little better. Temperatures will remain on the warm side as the front is essentially a wind shift. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Really a complex pattern as strong and sprawling high pressure builds across the southeast with our area on the eastern fringe. This will allow another back door front to slip south Sunday into Monday and dissipate once again. This could generate some showers similar to Friday and maintained the slight chance pops. Similar for the end of the period as well. This front will have a bit more impact on temperatures but still readings will be well above normal. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... There could be some light fog through 1230Z, otherwise VFR. Winds are expected to be from the southeast today, with CU forming along the coast, pushing rapidly inland by noon. A stray shower is possible, however it will be in between the terminals. Tonight, winds at the boundary layer appear to be too strong to support fog. Extended Outlook...Fog and/or low stratus may develop late tonight, mainly after 07Z, affecting the Florence and Lumberton airports. Otherwise VFR conditions should prevail. && .MARINE... A weak area of high pressure covering the Carolinas will move off the coast this afternoon, allowing variable wind directions to become more firmly onshore. Wind speeds should only increase to around 10 knots. As the high gets a little farther offshore Thursday winds should increase closer to 15 knots in a combination of a tightening pressure gradient and a healthy late-season seabreeze. Tropical Storm Jerry will move very near Bermuda later today. While this storm is not particularly strong, it's still responsible for the 11 second southeast swell moving through the waters this morning. This swell should diminish in height tonight into Thursday, but overall wave heights won't drop significantly as we'll have an increasing 3 to 4-second chop from local southwest winds. Winds will generally maintain a southerly component for most of the period as a weak boundary moving across Friday quickly dissipates. A more pronounced northeasterly flow will develop late in the period via stronger high pressure building in from the northeast. Wind speeds will be 10-15 knots probably leaning mostly to the lower end of the range until the northeasterly flow, which will see an uptick in speeds. Significant seas will be modest with the southerly flow and increase appreciably with increase in winds late in the period. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK UPDATE...CRM NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...TRA MARINE...TRA/SHK