034 
FXUS64 KLZK 250903
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
403 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night

Objectionable surface analysis indicates a quasi-stationary front
situated across portions of west central and southern AR early 
this morning. North of the boundary, patchy areas of fog has 
developed and should persist through sunrise. A corridor of 
locally higher dew points can be depicted along and adjacent to 
this boundary. The front is expected to lift northward through the
day before washing out over northern AR. This front should serve 
as a triggering mechanism for showers and thunderstorms later 
today when combined with passing upper level shortwave energy. 
Best chances of PoPs will reside across the northern one half of 
the state. Locally heavy rainfall may be possible with the 
strongest of storms due to training of cells. Temperatures should
be warmest south of the front across southern AR where more 
sunshine is expected. Further north, clouds and rain will help 
keep temperatures a bit lower. Highs are expected to top out in 
the lower to middle 80s north, around 90 central, to the lower and
middle 90s across southern AR.


Thursday, another frontal boundary will approach the state from the 
northwest within upper northwesterly flow. Along and ahead of the 
front, more showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and 
overspread the CWA, less activity is expected further south away 
from the influence of frontal lifting. Upper level high pressure 
over the Gulf will help to halt the fronts progression southward 
stalling it out over central/ south central AR. Behind the front,
surface high pressure will usher cooler and drier air into the 
northern half of the state. Highs on Thursday will be in the 
lower to middle 80s north and central with north/northeasterly 
winds, while southern AR remains in the lower to middle 90s with 
south/southeasterly winds. 

Lows through the period will be in the 60s and 70s. Cooler air 
should not last long because surface high pressure shifts east 
resulting in surface winds becoming southerly once again Thursday
night. Once southerly winds return, the front will begin to lift 
northward through the overnight period. Warm air advection 
recommences including a substantial increase in low level moisture
across the area heading into Friday. Unseasonably warm 
temperatures and dry conditions will continue well into the long 
term as upper level high pressure builds back into the region. 
&&

.LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday

No significant chgs were made to the going fcst. On Fri, upper rdg 
wl be situated ovr the SE states, with a resulting SW flow aloft ovr 
the Mid-South. A CDFNT is fcst to apch NW AR on later Fri night into 
Sat, as an assocd upr trof passes to out N. Kept low PoPs in the 
fcst for most areas, with the higher rain chances ovr the NW part of 
the FA.

For the remainder of the period, the aforementioned upper rdg wl 
expand to the NW toward the region. By early next week, the center 
of the upper high wl be in close proximity to AR. This wl result in 
a return to hot and generally dry conditions.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     86  69  82  67 /  50  60  30   0 
Camden AR         93  70  93  67 /  20  10  20   0 
Harrison AR       85  66  79  67 /  60  70  30   0 
Hot Springs AR    90  72  87  68 /  30  30  30   0 
Little Rock   AR  90  72  86  68 /  40  30  30   0 
Monticello AR     94  72  93  69 /  10  10  10   0 
Mount Ida AR      87  71  86  68 /  30  30  30  10 
Mountain Home AR  85  67  80  66 /  60  70  30   0 
Newport AR        87  69  84  68 /  50  50  30   0 
Pine Bluff AR     92  71  90  68 /  20  20  20   0 
Russellville AR   88  71  85  68 /  40  50  40   0 
Searcy AR         88  70  84  67 /  40  40  30   0 
Stuttgart AR      90  70  88  68 /  30  20  20   0 
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...JONES / Long Term...44