463 FXUS61 KCLE 241611 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1211 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure across the Ohio Valley will provide the region with fair weather. A cold front Wednesday evening will produce a few scattered showers. High pressure will end the work week with a frontal system stalling in the vicinity over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Update...No big changes for the update. Original Discussion... Have some lake effect cloud cover to start the morning downwind of the lake. Some denser cloud cover accompanies a trough crossing the eastern Great Lakes this morning. This may produce a brief shower or two for far northeast OH/nw PA mainly this morning. The surface ridge will overcome the area by afternoon and will be left with some fair weather cumulus that will fade by evening. Temperatures, with a cooler pool of air aloft, will be more seasonable. Will have a range from near 70 across northwest PA to the mid 70s west of I-71. Quiet conditions continue tonight. The high shifts east rather quickly and will be on the backside with return flow as early as late tonight across western OH. Still should get some decent cooling across the inland eastern OH/nw PA locations with lows there nearing 50. Otherwise expect mid 50s and upper 50s near the lake. Some mid level cloud cover will overspread the area on Wednesday with a few spotty showers preceding the cold front. Still cannot go any higher than a 20/20 percent chance. Temperatures will get a boost and make a run for 80. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A broad upper trough across the central CONUS will send a wave of energy across the region on Wednesday night into Thursday, supporting a surface cold front. The associated low will stay well north of the region into Canada. The front appears to be fairly dry as it crosses the forecast area with limited low level moisture, lifting north into the region. However, the rain chances remain non- zero so will keep a mix of slight chance to low chance PoPs for Wednesday night into Thursday. Temperatures will be near normal behind the front on Thursday with highs in the lower 70s. The upper trough propagates northeast out of the region Thursday night into Friday and some upper ridging attempts to build in from the south. At the surface, high pressure enters the Ohio Valley. Together, these features should keep the forecast area dry for Thursday night and Friday. Warm, southerly flow returns to the region and temperatures will trend warmer again towards the 80s by Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The weekend forecast has become a bit more tricky in the past several forecast runs, as a formerly hot and dry forecast has become a bit more uncertain. An upper ridge building from the south will struggle to move north this weekend as several waves of energy move through the central CONUS. These shortwaves will support a frontal boundary that will attempt to push south across the Great Lakes region. The result is a weak front that will stall somewhere close, if not over the forecast area for Saturday into Sunday. If the front remains north of the area, will see well above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions. However, if the front is near or south of the area, there will be a rain chance for this weekend and temperatures will remain warm, but not quite as hot as the alternative solution. With the trend towards the front being over the area, will keep temperatures tapered a bit in the upper 70s/lower 80s and a low PoP over the region. The upper ridge will eventually win out for Monday and allow the forecast area to see more summer-like conditions with hot temperatures in the mid 80s and dry. && .AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... High pressure building in from the southwest today will allow for VFR conditions with mostly sunny skies with a couple cumulus clouds. The only concern for today are some lake clouds and scattered rain showers in NW PA and extreme NE Ohio. This area may see some MVFR over the next few hours before some drier air enters the region and clears these out. Winds will be generally light today with advancing high pressure. .OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in showers with a low chance of thunderstorms Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. && .MARINE... Marine conditions will still remain hazardous this morning with strong westerly winds over the lake. Winds have subsided to less than 20 knots in the western basin and all wave reports at this time have been 3 ft or less. Therefore, will allow for the small craft advisory and beach hazards statement expire for the western basin at 4 AM. Winds remain elevated for the eastern half but are also diminishing. Waves remain in the 3 to 5 ft range and will keep the headlines up through 10 AM. High pressure building in from the west today will quickly reduce the winds over the lake and mean winds should be southwest around 10 knots or less by midday. High pressure remains in place through Wednesday morning. A cold front approaches from the west for Wednesday night into Thursday. Winds will increase from the southwest for Wednesday afternoon and evening and could see the need for a small craft advisory as winds approach 20 knots over the lake. The front crosses the lake on Thursday morning and winds will be out of the west for much of the day on Thursday. Waves will respond in the eastern basin and a small craft will be necessary for waves 3 to 5 ft. High pressure returns to the region on Friday and winds will be light to begin the day before slowly increasing out of the southwest. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Oudeman NEAR TERM...TK/Oudeman/Sefcovic SHORT TERM...Sefcovic LONG TERM...Sefcovic AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...Sefcovic