812 FXUS63 KFGF 240450 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1150 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019 Updated aviation section below .UPDATE... Issued at 1004 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019 No further changes needed. A few storms in Manitoba moving east but our shower area is now west of Regina moving ESE. 00z NAM shows scattered light showers Tuesday esp midday and afternoon focused northern areas. UPDATE Issued at 701 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019 Little change needed other than to go more general -rw vs -trw for weather conditions Tues AM. A bit better instability arrives Tues aftn so kept higher thunder chances then. Increasing cirrus tonight with mid clouds Tuesday. Main shower chance arrives midday and aftn. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019 Precip timing and amounts tomorrow will be the main challenge for the period. Quiet period continues with brief upper ridging over the Plains, but the next strong shortwave trough is already approaching through Saskatchewan. This shortwave will continue to progress southeastward into our region tonight, digging into the Dakotas during the day tomorrow. Both the CAMs and the global models have some light precip moving in tomorrow morning as the main upper trough axis digs into the area, and then another round in the north tomorrow afternoon and evening as a cold front drops down from Canada. MU CAPE values are under 1000 J/kg but there is some instability so some embedded thunder will be possible. At this point, both the front and the shortwave look fairly progressive so precip will move fairly quickly and not linger. A quick tenth or two of rain will be possible mainly near the Canadian border, but not expecting heavy amounts at this point. Precip should shift off to the east late Tuesday night. As for temperatures, southwest winds and increasing cloud cover will keep overnight readings from getting quite as cold as last night, mainly in the 50s. With clouds and the frontal boundary moving into the area there will be some gradient across the CWA for Tuesday, with mid 70s near the SD border and staying in the 60s north. Cold air advection will drop temps back into the 40s for Tuesday night. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019 Much of the long term will be active with multiple precipitation chances and a downward trend in temperatures from the short term. Wednesday through Friday Night For Wednesday into Wednesday night, look for much of the area to remain dry with the low pressure system to the northeast. An isolated shower can't be ruled out in north central MN. However, the post cold frontal northwesterly winds will bring stable, cooler air with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s and lows in the lower to mid 40s. A few areas could dip into the upper 30s. Similar temperatures will prevail for Thursday with areas of low pressure and a 500mb trough moving in from the west. Rain showers will arrive with the low and upper-level trough Thursday afternoon and into the night with 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain possible. A cold front associated with the low pressure system will bring northwest flow into the area once again. This wind pattern, combined with patchy cloud cover, will cool temperatures even more with highs in the 50s in most areas with lingering rain showers. Cold air advection from the northwest will drop temperatures into the 30s for much of the area with lows near freezing possible in the northern Devils Lake Basin. There is still uncertainty for the location of precipitation this far out, but a light mixture of rain and snow is possible in northeast North Dakota late Friday night into Saturday morning. Accumulations are not expected due to warm ground temperatures. However, if skies remain relatively clear, areas of frost are possible along and north of Highway 200, given the current guidance suggestions. Saturday through Monday Expect to see relatively cool temperatures in the 50s continue for Saturday with another low pressure system advancing from the west. Precipitation will arrive in the afternoon/evening in western areas and spread eastward. Some more mixed precipitation is suggested in the northern Devils Lake Basin Saturday night into Sunday morning, but all other areas look to see only rain at this time. There are also some suggestions of this rainfall being persistent and widespread due to precipitable water values in the top 10th percentile, suggested by the NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness Table. Temperatures will remain near or slightly below normal in this period. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019 VFR thru the pd. Increasing high clouds overnight into Tuesday AM from west to east, followed by mid clouds, mostly in the 6000-9000 ft agl range. A few showers within the mid cloud deck as it moves through. Winds south overnight under 10 kts turning west Tuesday near 10 kts midday and thru the aftn as the front moves thru. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...Lee/Wasilewski AVIATION...Riddle