288 
FXUS63 KMPX 240003
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
703 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 547 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

Updated to include 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

Quiet near term, transitioning into potential severe weather event 
for late Tuesday afternoon and evening. 

High pressure ridge exiting to the southeast overnight allowing
more southerly flow to develop ahead of next frontal system. May
see some high clouds move in from the west ahead of the northern 
stream trough. 

Increasing/thickening clouds expected into Tuesday with increasing 
southerly winds. probably see gusts 20-25kts into south central MN
in the afternoon. The front is progged into central MN by 00z. 
Appears convective initiation should occur after 22z along the 
front near the west metro to Redwood Falls region. MUCAPEs to 2500
J/kg, increasing shear, steep mid level lapse rates, and 100kt 
plus 300 mb jet nosing into central MN, all point to severe 
convection developing rapidly during the 22z-03z period across the
southeast half of the CWA. Agree with coverage area of SPC DAY2 
outlook at this time. All modes of severe weather possible, with 
tornadoes possible early after initiation. 

The front exits to the east around 06z Wed, with cooler and drier 
air working into the area late. 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

The long term period still looks to be active, with a little bit 
of a roller coaster ride in terms of temperature.

By Wednesday, post frontal dry air will be filling in across the 
region with dew points retreating into the 40s and highs checking 
up near normal, in the mid to upper 60s. With the large northern 
stream trough dipping south late this week and rotating shortwave 
energy through, precipitation chances increase yet again Friday.

A western trough will dig across the western CONUS this weekend, 
enhancing southwesterly flow locally and leading to temperatures 
and dew points rising once again. Warmer than normal conditions 
round out the long term period with more opportunities for showers 
and thunderstorms early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 547 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

VFR throughout this TAF period. Mainly clear skies overnight
followed by gradually increasing clouds tomorrow with lowering
ceilings. No precipitation expected prior to 00z tomorrow so aside
from the last 6 hours at KMSP, have kept the TAFs dry. Winds will
go light/variable overnight then start out S 5-10kt after sunrise
then continue to veer to W as the day progresses.

KMSP...No significant impacts thru late Tuesday afternoon, then
precipitation chances increase from 00z onward as a line of TSRA
is likely to push through the Twin Cities metro. Have added in
TEMPO mention to address this.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. Gusts around 25 kts. 
Thu...Mainly VFR. Chance evening MVFR/SHRA. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
Fri...MVFR/SHRA likely, possible TSRA. Wind SW 5-10 kts becoming
NW.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC