592 FXUS62 KCHS 230725 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 325 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail today. A weak cold front will move into the area Tuesday and then slowly dissipate through mid week. High pressure will then return this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 320 AM: Recent water vapor images indicate a broad area of dry air across the Southeast U.S. In addition, a cold front was entering the Ohio River Valley, stretching back west across the Southern Great Plains. The sfc pattern across the CWA will be dominated by high pressure, with the center sliding over FL by this afternoon. Sunny conditions expected across the forecast area today. Winds should begin the day light from the north, then turning from the south this afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to peak around 90 inland to the mid 80s across the beaches. Tonight, thin high clouds may arrive from the west during the pre-dawn hours. Otherwise, expecting another night of radiational cooling conditions, min temps favoring mid to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High confidence this period. A weak cold front looks to push into the area Tuesday before stalling and dissipating. Meanwhile, an upper trough will be pushing offshore helping to keep tropical cyclone Jerry well off the coast. Although can't rule out a few showers at times through the period we are not expecting any appreciable rain given the lack of any substantial instability/forcing. Temperatures will remain above normal through the period, and heat indices should reach the mid/upper 90s inland (generally highest near the Altamaha River Wednesday and Thursday). && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Moderate confidence this period. No significant concerns with high pressure generally prevailing. Given the lack of strong instability/forcing we aren't expecting much rain, although much will depend on the track of tropical cyclone Karen which may be nearing the Southeast U.S. coast early next week. At this point it looks like the ridge will be strong enough to keep any tropical system south of the local area but confidence is low this far out. Temperatures will stay above normal through the period, with heat indices likely peaking near 100 degrees inland Friday (especially in GA). && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions expected to prevail at KCHS and KSAV through 06Z Tuesday. Extended Aviation Outlook: No significant concerns through Saturday. && .MARINE... The center of broad high pressure is expected to slide south across the marine zones today. Tonight, a cold front is forecast to slide east over the southern Appalachians, remaining well inland by daybreak Tuesday. Winds will generally remain light and variable today, shifting from the south this evening and tonight. Little to no change is expected with wave heights through the near term. The dominate wave is forecast to be swells sourced from Jerry, 11 to 13 second periods. Tuesday through Saturday: No significant concerns as a weak cold front moves into the area Tuesday, stalls and then dissipates through mid week. High pressure should then return late week. Winds and seas should stay below Advisory levels despite increasing swells from tropical cyclone Jerry which will be tracking north well east of the local waters mid week. Rip Currents: Long period easterly swell with elevated wave energy will result in a moderate rip current risk for all beaches today. An elevated risk will likely continue much of this week, mainly due to astronomical influences and swells. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... High astronomical tides could reach minor to possibly moderate coastal flooding levels mid to late week. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...NED SHORT TERM...RJB LONG TERM...RJB AVIATION...NED/RJB MARINE...NED/RJB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJB